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太阳能光伏大爆发:国务院七部委“八箭连发”力挺光伏

一、太阳能伏大爆发:国务院七部委“八箭连发”力挺光伏
 1、生态环境部:未来十年我国将大力发展风电、太阳能发电
         12月15日,生态环境部应对气候变化司司长李高表示,在“十四五”“十五五”期间,我国将进一步大力发展风电、太阳能发电。李高说,中国在气候雄心峰会上提出,到2030年,风电、太阳能发电总装机容量将达到12亿千瓦以上等4项目标。这一目标充分展现了中国积极应对气候变化的力度与决心。到2030年的风电、太阳能发电装机目标接近现有规模的3倍,相当于美国目前全部发电装机规模,超过了目前全球风电、光伏的装机规模。这意味着我国风电和太阳能发电在过去快速发展的基础上,未来十年仍要实现持续的高速发展。
2、工信部:光伏玻璃不受产能置换限制
       生态环境部表态大力支持光伏发展第二天,工信部又发一利好政策,直指光伏玻璃持续涨价影响光伏组件生产和交付能力的问题。
12月16日,工信部就《水泥玻璃行业产能置换实施办法(修订稿)》公开征求意见。工信部在这则文件中表示,光伏压延玻璃和汽车玻璃项目可不制定产能置换方案。这则文件意味着光伏压延玻璃不需制定产能置换方案即可投产新的项目,在挪去产能置换这个“紧箍咒”后,光伏压延玻璃的产能将会迅速扩大,而光伏玻璃供应掣肘光伏迎接平价时代的阴霾也将一挥而散。生态环境部、工信部之外,交通运输部也发布一项利好,全力支持光伏+产业的发展。据了解,2020年交通运输部已发布两则文件,支持光伏+应用拓展,可以说是不遗余力。
3、交通运输部:鼓励在服务区、边坡等公路沿线合理布局光伏发电设施
        首先,8月6日,《交通运输部关于推动交通运输领域新型基础设施建设的指导意见》(以下简称《意见》)下发。《意见》提到,打造融合高效的智慧交通基础设施,在新能源新材料行业应用上,鼓励在服务区、边坡等公路沿线合理布局光伏发电设施,与市电等并网供电。
数据显示,到2020年,我国高速公里里程已达15万公里。按照平均每50公里一对服务区的标准粗略计算,全国约有3000对以上服务区,加上边坡的面积,装机的空间非常大。继8月份发文鼓励在服务区、边坡等公路沿线合理布局光伏发电设施之后,近日交通运输部印发《关于招商局集团有限公司开展集装箱码头智能化升级改造等交通强国建设试点工作的意见》(以下简称《意见》)再次提及光伏。
4、交通运输部:制定高速公路路侧光伏工程技术规范
        《意见》提出,基于绿色能源的智慧高速公路关键技术研究与应用,开展高速公路绿色能源建设模式与技术规范研究,制定高速公路路侧光伏工程技术规范,探索建立绿色能源全生命周期管理机制。开展绿色能源综合服务模式与市场化电力交易盈利模式研究,建设基于分布式光储系统的高速公路智慧能源服务平台,促进绿色能源发用电产业一体化发展。对比两个文件,“能源100”太阳能小编的理解是,如果说交通运输部提出“鼓励在服务区、边坡等公路沿线合理布局光伏发电设施”是将光伏+交通产业融合的一次尝试的话,那么明确说将“制定高速公路路侧光伏工程技术规范”,则意味着光伏+交通的行业协同发展付诸于实操阶段。生态环境部、工信部、交通运输部等“边缘”机关鼎力支持光伏的同时,国家能源局、财政部等主管光伏产业发展的国务院部委“呵护”光伏产业发展的力度更是空前。
5、国家能源局:将继续出台多项扶持光伏产业的政策
        12月10日,2020年中国光伏行业协会年度大会举行,国家能源局新能源司副司长任育之出席并讲话,透露了国家能源局将扶持光伏产业发展的一些政策动向。任育之表示,“十四五”期间,光伏发电将脱离补贴进入平价时代,但国家能源局则将继续出台扶持光伏产业的政策。这些政策包括新能源基地示范工程行动计划,考虑在三北、西南布局多个千万千瓦级的新能源基地,在各地推动建设一批百万千瓦级的光伏发电平价基地,因地制宜地建设一批农光互补、牧光互补等多模式的光伏发电项目。十四五期间,我们也将推动一批示范项目建设,促进光伏加储能、光伏治沙、光伏制氢等新产业新业态的成熟,并实施一级行动计划,促进光伏发电多点开发。任育之称,目前初步考虑继续完善可能再生能源消纳权重考核制度以及绿证制度,并且可能要有一些很大的变化,调动各方积极性,推出平价时代光伏电价政策,做好与电力市场的衔接。在保证项目基本收益的情况下,逐步有序推动新增光伏发电参与电力市场交易,推动新一代电力系统建设,确保大规模光伏发电的接入和消纳,以及建筑物上安装光伏的强制性国家标准出台。
6、财政部:2006年及以后项目全部纳入补贴清单
        而在国家能源局就十四五光伏产业谋局布篇前,负责光伏补贴政策制订的财政部于11月25日对外释放一项重大利好。当日,财政部下发《关于加快推进可再生能源发电补贴项目清单审核有关工作的通知》,明确 2006年及以后年度按规定完成核准(备案)手续并且完成全容量并网的所有项目均可申报进入补贴清单。相较于2020年3月23日发布的《关于开展可再生能源发电补贴项目清单审核有关工作的通知》(财办建〔2020〕6号),财政部最新《通知》中剔除了“光伏发电需要于2017年7月底前全容量并网,光伏领跑者和2019年竞价项目并网时间可延长至2019年12月底”的时间限制,明确有建设指标的所有合规项目都将通过此次补贴清单申报获得确权。无疑,这一《通知》的下发,对于补贴被拖欠的可再生能源企业而言,不啻于吃了一颗“定心丸”,打了一针“强心剂”。在补贴确权以及欠补问题有望得以解决的背景下,光伏等可再生能源企业必将进入高速发展阶段。
值得一提的是,财政部先下发《关于开展可再生能源发电补贴项目清单审核有关工作的通知》,接着又下发《关于加快推进可再生能源发电补贴项目清单审核有关工作的通知》,或也文如其义,财政部正在加快着手解决补贴拖欠问题。
7、科技部:鼓励“光伏+生态修复”项目,推动荒漠化修复!
        在推动光伏+的发展方面,科技部和住建部也有利好政策下发。
近日,科技部在回复《关于在“一带一路”国家开展光伏+生态修复合作的建议》中表示, 下一步将会鼓励生态环境保护部门和机构结合分布式风电/光伏以及农光、渔光、牧/风光等示范项目的实施,推动荒漠化等生态环境修复,实现可再生能源开发利用与生态文明建设共赢。
8、住建部发布《太阳能发电工程项目规范(征求意见稿)》
       住建部方面,11月份,住房和城乡建设部发布关于工程建设强制性国家规范《太阳能发电工程项目规范(征求意见稿)》,太阳能发电工程规范方面向社会广泛公开征求意见。住建部下发这则文件,预示太阳能发电工程在建筑方面的应用逐步落地,并开始规范化、标准化发展阶段。这是住建部推进光伏+应用发展方面的努力,利好户用和工商业分布式。
二、光伏2021年度展望
       光伏全面平价,助力全球实现碳中和:2021年光伏行业将保持高景气,预计明年全球装机量为160GW,同比增长30%以上。一方面,随着光伏发电成本逐年降低,目前已经可以实现平价上网,因此光伏市场需求有望迎来更大的爆发。2021年全球光伏电力成本有望比2019年再降低43%,达到0.04美元/kWh,全球各地区都将迎来平价时代。另一方面,光伏发电渗透率较低,未来将成为全球主流的发电来源线路,市场空间巨大。而光伏发电绿色清洁的属性 ,也非常符合全球各国可持续发展的目标,且各国都有相应的绿色发展计划。我国提出力争在2030年前实现碳达峰,2060年前实现碳中和。“十四五”力争实现煤炭消费达峰甚至负增长;非化石能源比重达到20%左右,能源消费总量控制在55亿tce以内。据此测算,“十四五”期间光伏年均装机可达70GW+。欧洲方面,减排目标不断提升,2020年9月《2030年气候目标计划》中指出可再生能源占终端能源消费量比重在2030年前达到38%~40%。
美国方面,拜登当选以后将宣布重新加入《巴黎协定》,2020年11月18日,美国太阳能行业协会向拜登建议,取消特朗普对进口设备征关税 ,并提出通过立法来延长一份针对太阳能产业的、关键性的联邦税收抵免政策。总的来说,在中美欧政策预期下,估计2021年全球光伏装机同比增速达到34%,实现近十年最高增长,中欧美三个地区光伏装机占比有望达到67%。ps:12月9日国家能源局新能源司副司长表示“十四五光伏空间远超十三五,对在座的各位都是重大机会”,光伏协会首次给出官方“十四五”指引——年均70至90GW,而我国今年光伏装机量预计在35-40GW左右,此次官方给出的“十四五”指引同比至少翻倍。

One, solar energy volt explosion: seven Ministries and commissions of the State Council "eight arrows in succession" to support photovoltaic!  

1. Ministry of Ecology and Environment: In the next decade, China will vigorously develop wind power and solar power generation  

China will further develop wind and solar power during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, li Gao, head of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment's climate change department, said on Dec 15.  

At the climate summit, China proposed four targets, including a total installed wind and solar power capacity of more than 1.2 gigawatts by 2030, Li said.   This target fully demonstrates China's strength and determination to actively address climate change.  By 2030, the wind power and solar power generation installed target is close to 3 times of the existing scale, equivalent to the current total installed scale of the United States, more than the current installed scale of global wind power and photovoltaic.  This means that China's wind and solar power generation, based on the rapid development in the past, will continue to achieve rapid development in the next decade.  

2, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: photovoltaic glass is not limited by capacity replacement  

The next day, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a favorable policy, pointing to the continued price rise of photovoltaic glass affects the production and delivery capacity of photovoltaic modules.  

On December 16, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) publicly solicited opinions on the "Cement glass Industry capacity Replacement Implementation Measures (revised)".   The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in the document that photovoltaic calendered glass and automotive glass projects do not have capacity replacement plans.   This document means that photovoltaic calendered glass does not need to develop capacity replacement program can be put into production of new projects, in the removal of capacity replacement this "magic spell", photovoltaic calendered glass capacity will rapidly expand, and photovoltaic glass supply constraints to meet the era of affordable photovoltaic haze will also wave and dissipated.  In addition to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Transport also issued a positive statement to fully support the development of photovoltaic + industry.   It is understood that in 2020, the Ministry of Transport has issued two documents to support the expansion of PHOTOVOLTAIC + applications, which can be said to spare no effort.  

3. Ministry of Transport: Encourage reasonable layout of photovoltaic power generation facilities along roads such as service areas and slopes  

First, on August 6, the Guidance of the Ministry of Transport on Promoting the Construction of New infrastructure in the field of transport (hereinafter referred to as the Opinions) was issued.   The Opinions mentioned that to build integrated and efficient intelligent transportation infrastructure, in the application of new energy and new materials industry, encourage reasonable layout of photovoltaic power generation facilities in service areas, slopes and other roads, and connect with the electricity supply.  

Statistics show that by 2020, China's high-speed kilometers have reached 150,000 kilometers.  According to the standard of one pair of service areas per 50 kilometers, there are more than 3000 pairs of service areas in China. With the area of slope, the installed space is very large.  After encouraging the rational layout of photovoltaic power generation facilities in service areas, slopes and other highways in August, the Ministry of Transport recently issued the Opinions on China Merchants Group Co., LTD. 's Pilot work of building a Transportation power country such as intelligent Upgrading and Renovation of Container Terminals (hereinafter referred to as the Opinions), which mentioned pv again.  

4. Ministry of Transport: Formulate technical specifications for highway side photovoltaic engineering  

According to the Opinions, the key technologies of smart expressways based on green energy should be researched and applied, the construction mode and technical specifications of green energy should be studied, the technical specifications of photovoltaic engineering on the side of expressways should be formulated, and the whole life-cycle management mechanism of green energy should be explored.   Research on the comprehensive service model of green energy and the profit model of market-oriented electricity trading will be carried out, and a smart energy service platform for expressways based on distributed optical storage system will be built to promote the integrated development of the green energy generation and electricity consumption industry.   Compare two files, the "energy" 100 solar small make up understanding is that if the Ministry of Transport put forward "to encourage in the service area, slope road along the reasonable layout of photovoltaic power generation facilities such as" is the photovoltaic + transportation industry amalgamation of a try, so clear said it would "create highway roadside photovoltaic engineering technical specifications",   It means that the collaborative development of photovoltaic + transportation industry is put into practice.  While the "marginal" institutions such as the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Transport are giving full support to photovoltaic, the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Finance and other ministries and commissions under The State Council, which are in charge of the development of photovoltaic industry, are making unprecedented efforts to "protect" the development of photovoltaic industry.  

5. National Energy Administration: It will continue to introduce a number of policies to support the photovoltaic industry  

On December 10, the 2020 Annual general Meeting of China Photovoltaic Industry Association was held. Ren Yuzhi, deputy director general of new Energy Department of National Energy Administration attended and gave a speech, revealing some policy trends that National Energy Administration will support the development of photovoltaic industry.   Ren said that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, photovoltaic power generation will move from subsidies to parity, but the National Energy Administration will continue to introduce policies to support the photovoltaic industry.  These policies include the action plan for demonstration projects of new energy bases, consideration of the layout of new energy bases with the capacity of 10 million kilowatts in the three Northern regions and the southwest, promotion of the construction of a number of photovoltaic power generation bases with the capacity of 1 million kilowatts in various regions, and the construction of a number of photovoltaic power generation projects with multiple modes such as agricultural and solar complementary and grazing complementary according to local conditions.  During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, we will also promote the construction of a number of demonstration projects, promote the maturity of new industries and new forms of business such as photovoltaic plus energy storage, photovoltaic sand control and photovoltaic hydrogen production, and implement a first-level action plan to promote the development of photovoltaic power generation in multiple locations.  Ren Yuzhi said, at present preliminary consideration to continue to improve the possible renewable energy absorption weight assessment system and green card system, and may have some great changes, mobilize the enthusiasm of all parties, the launch of parity era photovoltaic electricity price policy, do a good job with the power market.  On the premise of ensuring the basic benefits of the project, it will gradually and orderly promote the participation of new photovoltaic power generation in the electricity market, promote the construction of a new generation of power system, ensure the access and consumption of large-scale photovoltaic power generation, and introduce mandatory national standards for the installation of photovoltaic power on buildings.  

6. Ministry of Finance: all projects in 2006 and after will be included in the subsidy list  

Ahead of the National Energy Administration's 14th five-year plan for the photovoltaic industry, the Ministry of Finance (MOF), which is responsible for photovoltaic subsidy policy, released a big boost on November 25th.   On The same day, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on Accelerating the review of the List of renewable energy Power generation subsidy projects, specifying that all projects that complete the approval (filing) procedures and complete full capacity grid connection in 2006 and subsequent years can apply for the list of subsidies.   Compared with the "Notice on The Review of the List of Subsidized Renewable Energy Power Generation Projects" issued on March 23, 2020 (Finance and Construction Office 2020 no. 6), the latest "Notice" of the Ministry of Finance removed the "photovoltaic power generation needs to be fully connected to the grid by the end of July 2017,  The grid connection time of pv frontrunners and 2019 bidding projects can be extended to the end of December 2019 ". All compliance projects with clear construction indicators will be confirmed through this subsidy list declaration.   Undoubtedly, this "notice" issued, for the subsidy arrears of renewable energy enterprises, tantamount to eat a "reassuring pill", a "shot in the arm".   Under the background of subsidy confirmation and lack of subsidy, photovoltaic and other renewable energy enterprises are bound to enter a stage of rapid development.  

It is worth mentioning that the Ministry of Finance first issued the implementation of renewable energy power generation subsidy program listing audit announcement concerning the work, then issued "about accelerating renewable energy generation subsidy program listing audit announcement concerning the work, and also the style is the righteousness, the Treasury is speed up to solve the problem of subsidies to default.  

Ministry of Science and Technology: encourage "photovoltaic + ecological restoration" project, promote desertification restoration!  

In promoting the development of PV +, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also have favorable policies.  

Recently, the Ministry of Science and Technology in response to "about the" area "national pv + ecological restoration cooperation suggestion, said the next step will be to encourage the ecological environmental protection departments and agencies combined with distributed wind/photovoltaic (pv) as well as agriculture, fishery, animal husbandry light/light scene is the implementation of demonstration projects, such as promoting desertification and ecological environment restoration,   We will achieve win-win results in the development and utilization of renewable energy and ecological progress.  

8. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development releases "Solar Power Project Specification (Draft)"  

For the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, in November, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the Mandatory national code for engineering construction, the Code for Solar Power Project (Draft for Comments), and the code for solar power project was widely publicized to solicit opinions from the society.   The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued this document, indicating that the application of solar power generation projects in the construction of the gradual landing, and began to standardize, standardized development stage.  This is the effort of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development to promote the development of PHOTOVOLTAIC + application, which is good for household and industrial and commercial distribution.  

Ii. Pv 2021 Outlook  

Pv comprehensive parity helps the world to achieve carbon neutrality: The pv industry will maintain a high prosperity in 2021, and it is estimated that the global installed capacity will be 160GW next year, an increase of more than 30% year-on-year.   On the one hand, as the cost of photovoltaic power generation decreases year by year, affordable Internet access can now be achieved, so the demand for photovoltaic market is expected to usher in a greater outbreak.  In 2021, the global pv power cost is expected to be reduced by 43% compared with 2019, reaching 0.04 US dollars /kWh, and all regions of the world will usher in the era of parity.  On the other hand, the low penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation will become the global mainstream power generation source line in the future, with huge market space.  The green and clean nature of photovoltaic power generation is also very consistent with the sustainable development goals of all countries around the world, and all countries have corresponding green development plans.  China proposes to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutral by 2060.  During the 14th Five-year Plan, we will strive to achieve peak or even negative growth in coal consumption.  The proportion of non-fossil energy should reach about 20%, and total energy consumption should be kept within 5.5 billion TCE.  According to this calculation, the annual pv installation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period can reach 70GW+.  In Europe, the emission reduction target is constantly improving. In September 2020, the 2030 Climate Target Plan pointed out that the proportion of renewable energy in terminal energy consumption should reach 38%~40% by 2030.  

On November 18, 2020, the Solar Energy Industry Association suggested to Biden that trump's tariffs on imported equipment be lifted and that legislation be passed to extend a key federal tax credit for the solar industry.   Overall, under the policy expectations of China, the United States and Europe, it is estimated that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by 34% year-on-year in 2021, achieving the highest growth in the past decade, and the pv installed capacity in China, Europe and the United States is expected to account for 67%.  Ps:   On December 9, new energy department, deputy director of the National Energy Administration said "photovoltaic spatial difference than much starker choices-and graver consequences-in, for everyone here is big opportunity", photovoltaic association is given for the first time the official "difference" guidance - by an average of 70 to 90 gw, and photovoltaic installations this year in China is expected to around 35-40 gw, given the official guidelines at least doubled compared to the "difference".  




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