The total size of the world photovoltaic industry is more than 50 billion US dollars, and the rise of home appliance photovoltaic and self-use applications will further expand the scale of the photovoltaic industry. Therefore, photovoltaic is the direction that any region that develops advanced manufacturing must pursue.From 2010 to 2011, the world photovoltaic frenzy, to promote the introduction of photovoltaic manufacturing projects throughout the country, the infinite light of solar energy so that governments and enterprises around the melting pot of the photovoltaic industry together regardless of their own lives. From 2012 to 2013, the photovoltaic boom gradually cooled down, and the photovoltaic industry entered a long winter.Enterprises brake and slow down the speed of progress, the huge gap between ideal and reality makes photovoltaic disputes everywhere, bankruptcy and debt restructuring has become the theme of the photovoltaic industry. In Dongguan, the commercial misunderstanding between Hongwei Digital and Dongguan Trust and Nancheng Qitai also evolved into the first case of photovoltaic dispute settled by criminal means in China.
Although the event is still not over, but this independent event should not become a stumbling block in dongguan photovoltaic road forward.The development of high-end industry is never smooth, we should learn from the experience and lessons, reflect on the pain, fall and then climb up, together plan the future of dongguan photovoltaic road, in the photovoltaic industry to find opportunities for development in the difficulties.
Crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry is not the direction pursued by Dongguan. The core of crystalline silicon photovoltaic competition is cheap electricity and basic resources, which are lacking in Dongguan, and the local environmental carrying capacity is also limited. Therefore, in the absence of basic comparative advantages, crystalline silicon manufacturing chain is not the development direction of Dongguan. The competition of modern industry is multi-dimensional competition, including the competition between enterprises, regional supply chain and regional supply chain, and the competition between governments.
Large-scale manufacturing, such as photovoltaic, is impossible without government support.Therefore, countries all over the world provide subsidies to the photovoltaic manufacturing industry in various ways. At present, China's photovoltaic industry is mainly based on crystalline silicon photovoltaic, the layout of photovoltaic provinces and regions in 10 years ago has formed a very mature industrial chain.
Today, it is impossible for Dongguan to take the traditional silicon as a breakthrough point, but conversely, dongguan has a small silicon pack, which can break through with new technologies in the new wave of photovoltaic. In addition, crystalline silicon technology originated in the 1950s, and some parts of the manufacturing chain are energy-intensive and polluting.The consumption of cheap resources as a means of competition in the industry is not suitable for Dongguan. Therefore, no matter from the perspective of industrial competition or resource utilization, crystal silicon is not the choice of Guangdong and Dongguan.
Layout of a new generation of efficient thin film photovoltaic cells
The biggest advantage of distributed photovoltaic is that the power generated is consumed locally and nearby, so the pressure on the power grid is small, which is in line with economic benefits. However, large-scale ground power stations are different. Photovoltaic power is transmitted to distant places through high-voltage power grids. Since photovoltaic power generation has low working hours per day, but it takes up
the same power grid resources as thermal power, it is not in line with the economic benefits of power grids, just like building a highway that can only be opened during the day and closed at night.In addition, in the field of distributed power generation, photovoltaic power has basically achieved parity grid connection under the concept of self-use, but large-scale ground photovoltaic power stations are still far from the cost of thermal power. Therefore, from the perspective of economics and the use of public resources, distributed generation is the mainstream of the current and future world.Since the roof is the installation carrier of distributed pv, the more efficient the photovoltaic cells are, the more popular they are under limited area conditions, because the higher power density enables the same roof to produce more electricity. Currently, the most efficient commercial photovoltaic cell in the world is a single crystal thin film solar cell produced by fusing thin film and N-type silicon wafer technology.
Because vacuum coating is the core of the technology, traditional silicon manufacturers do not have an advantage and have to start from scratch.This kind of photovoltaic cells with thin film as the core can also apply for exemption from anti-dumping duties, providing conditions for the competition of latecomers and breaking through the anti-dumping sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Photovoltaic. In order for Dongguan to break out in the competition of photovoltaic, it is necessary to develop the second generation of high-efficiency photovoltaic with thin film technology as the core by combining government and
civil forces.Dongguan has a comparative advantage in this respect -- it also has the ability of complete sets of equipment (the only one in China at present) and a complete supply chain of coating materials and packaging materials. This allows Dongguan not only to quickly establish industrial advantages, but also to the national industrial output, therefore, quickly determined layout of a new generation of efficient thin film battery is one
of the roads that Dongguan should take to develop advanced manufacturing.
The city is rich in roofing resources. The official estimate is that 3GW of photovoltaic power generation systems can be installed in Dongguan, which means that the market can accommodate more than 20 billion yuan of investment and bring more than 15 billion yuan of orders for the photovoltaic manufacturing chain. Therefore, it is a waste not to use this resource to support the development of local photovoltaic manufacturing industry.From another point of view, such a large market can not be promoted by the government through subsidies of public financial resources. It is necessary to launch new policy tools, use insurance lever to release financial lever, make full use of private capital and financial capital to promote the development of the end market, and use local end market demand
to drive the development of local photovoltaic manufacturing chain and new energy service industry.At present, the biggest problem in the development of distributed power generation in China is not the problem of return on investment, but the problem of independent and long-term financing of the project. The reason is that the policy design does not provide long-term stable cash flow for photovoltaic power generation, nor does it have a credible buyer.Therefore, property owners must pledge their property or land as collateral before banks can provide financing for projects, which restricts the market development of photovoltaic power generation. And it would be wrong for local governments to add subsidies to the already high rate of return on investment provided by state aid.We should start with reducing investment risk and breaking through financing obstacles. By breaking through the financing barrier, owners can leverage their loans to increase the return on equity, thereby reducing the amount of subsidy required.
In terms of risk reduction, the government can introduce foreign insurance companies or promote local insurance companies to provide full-risk insurance of electricity generation for photovoltaic projects. According to the experience of Europe, the ten-year full-risk insurance only increases system investment by 1.5%. At present, the return of distributed generation consists of two parts: the first is the subsidy of 0.42 yuan/KWH provided by the state, and the second is the electricity saved by users for their own use.
As user's self-use is a variable, cash flow is unpredictable, and user's long-term credit may not be high enough, and photovoltaic assets have no collateral value, thus causing financing obstacles. To solve this problem, the concept of insurance will change the risk of single owner into the average risk of universal credit, and the photovoltaic insurance company will provide guarantees to banks, so that banks can release
long-term capital with confidence.In the above operation, the PV insurance company solved the generation risk problem of the project, while the PV guarantee company solved the credit problem of the owner. From foreign experience, the default rate of photovoltaic power generation owners is very low, and the law of large numbers can be used to spread the risk.
Conclusion: Compared with other clusters of crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry, Dongguan lacks comparative advantages and the industrial chain is incomplete and immature. Therefore, the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry with cheap basic resources as a means of competition is not the choice of Dongguan. Photovoltaic industry has a bright future, and the promotion of home appliance photovoltaic and self-use concept will promote the world photovoltaic industry into a new wave.
High efficiency thin film photovoltaic with technology and equipment as the means of competition is the future direction of Dongguan, Dongguan in the past five years in the accumulation of technology and equipment manufacturing capacity so that
dongguan has the advantage of developing high efficiency thin film photovoltaic cells. Innovative policy-based insurance guarantee companies combined with the introduction of full-risk power generation guarantee can effectively unleash the local market.
Therefore, with efficient photovoltaic as the entry point, to vigorously develop thin-film efficient photovoltaic is the road that Dongguan should explore in the future.