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思考东莞市光伏太阳能发电的发展道路

      世界光伏产业的总规模超过500亿美元,未来家电光伏及自发自用应用的兴起,将进一步扩大光伏产业的规模。因此,光伏是任何一个发展先进制造业的地区所必须追逐的方向。2010-2011年的世界光伏狂潮,促使全国各地大力引入光伏制造项目,太阳能的无限光芒使各地政府和企业一起奋不顾身地跳进光伏产业的大熔炉中。2012-2013年,光伏的热潮逐渐冷却,光伏产业进入了漫长的寒冬。企业纷纷刹车和减慢前进的速度,理想和现实巨大的落差使光伏纷争四起,破产和债务重组成为了光伏产业的主题词。在东莞,宏威数码与东莞信托及南城启泰的商业误会也演变成全国首宗以刑事手段解决光伏纷争的个案。虽然事件仍未落幕,但这一独立事件不应成为东莞在光伏道路上前进的绊脚石。高端产业的发展从来都非坦途,我们应该吸取经验教训,痛定思痛,跌倒了再爬起来,共同谋划 东莞市光伏太阳能发电的道路,在光伏产业的困难中找寻发展的机会。
      晶硅光伏产业非东莞追逐的方向,  晶硅光伏的竞争核心是廉价的电力及基础资源,这都是东莞所欠缺的,而当地的环境承载能力也有限,故此,在欠缺基本的比较优势下,晶硅制造链条绝非东莞的发展方向。现代产业的竞争是多维度的竞争,包括了企业与企业的竞争,地区供应链与地区供应链的竞争,还有就是政府与政府之间的竞争。类似光伏这种大规模的制造业,没有政府的支持是不可能的。因此,世界各国都以各种的方式对光伏制造业提供补助。当前我国的光伏产业主要是以晶硅光伏为主,各光伏大省和地区的产业布局于10年前已形成非常成熟的产业链。东莞今天想以传统的晶硅作为切入点是不可能的,但反过来说,东莞的晶硅包袱也小,可以在光伏的新浪潮中以新技术突围。此外,晶硅技术起源于上世纪50年代,制造链条的某些环节能耗高污染大。这种以廉价资源的消耗作为竞争手段的工业并不适合东莞。故此,不管从产业竞争的角度,还是从资源利用的角度,晶硅都不是广东和东莞的选择。

布局新一代高效薄膜光伏电池

       分布式光伏最大的优点是所发的电力就地就近消耗,因此对电网构成的压力小,符合经济效益。而大规模的地面电站则不一样,光伏电力通过高压电网传向远方,由于光伏发电每天的工作时数低,但却占用与火电同样的电网资源,因此不符合电网的经济效益,道理就像建一条只有白天通车晚上关闭的高速公路一样不划算。此外,光伏电力在分布式发电的领域已经基本可实现自发自用概念下的平价并网,但大型地面光伏电站则和火电成本仍有距离。因此,从经济的角度和公用资源使用的角度出发,分布式发电都是当前和未来世界的主流。由于分布式光伏的安装载体是屋面,因此,在面积条件受限制的情况下,转效越高的光伏电池越受欢迎,因为较高的功率密度使同样的屋面可生产更多的电力。而当前世界上转效最高的商业化光伏电池,便是通过融合薄膜和N型硅片技术产生的单晶薄膜太阳能电池。由于技术以真空镀膜为核心,传统的晶硅业者并不具备优势,一切得从头再来。而这种以薄膜为核心的光伏电池,也可申请豁免反倾销税,为后来者提供竞争的条件,突破欧美对华光伏实施的反倾销制裁。东莞要在光伏的竞争中突围,必须结合政府和民间的力量发展以薄膜技术为核心的第二代高转效光伏。而东莞在这方面是具备比较优势的——同时具备成套装备的能力(这是目前国内唯一),具备镀膜材料、封装材料的完整供应链。这让东莞不单只可快速建立产业优势,也可向全国进行产业输出,故此,快下决心布局新一代高效薄膜电池是东莞发展先进制造业应走的道路之一。
         以本地市场培育本地的新兴高效光伏产业,东莞的屋面资源丰富,官方估计可以安装3GW的光伏发电系统,这表示市场可容纳超过200亿的投资,并为光伏制造链条带来超过150亿的订单。因此,不利用这一块资源去扶持本地光伏制造业的发展是浪费的。由另一个角度看,这样庞大的市场不是政府通过公共财政资源的补贴可以推动的。必须通过推出新型的政策工具,利用保险杠杆释放金融杠杆,充分利用民间资本及金融资本去推动终端市场的发展,并利用本地终端市场需求拉动本地光伏制造链条及新能源服务业的发展。当前,我国发展分布式发电遇到的最大的问题不是投资回报率的问题,而是项目没法进行独立和长期的融资的问题。原因是政策的设计没有为光伏发电提供长期稳定可依靠的现金流,也没有信用度够高的购电方。因此,业主必须以房产或土地作抵押,银行才会为项目提供融资,这就对光伏发电的市场发展造成制约。而各地政府在国家补助提供得已经够高的投资回报率上,再进行额外的补贴的做法是错误的。应有由减低投资风险和突破融资障碍入手。突破了融资的障碍,业主便可以利用贷款杠杆去提高股本的回报率,变相降低了对补贴额度的要求。

       在降低风险方面,政府可引入外国的保险公司或推动本地的保险公司为光伏项目提供发电量的全风险保险,由欧洲的经验总结来看,十年的全风险保险费只增加系统投资1.5%。当前分布式发电的回报由两部分构成,第一是国家提供的0.42元/度的补贴,第二是用户自用所节省的电费。由于用户自用是一个变量,现金流变得不可预测,而用户的长期信用不一定够高,光伏资产又没有抵押价值,故此造成融资的障碍。要解决这个问题要通过保险的概念,将单一业主的风险变成全民信用的平均风险,并由光伏保险公司向银行提供担保,使银行放心释放长期资本。在以上的操作中,光伏保险公司解决了项目的发电风险问题,而光伏担保公司则解决了业主的信用问题。由外国的经验看,光伏发电业主的违约率是很低的,而且可利用大数法则把风险分散。
       总结:东莞和其他晶硅光伏产业的聚集区比较而言,欠缺比较优势,产业链不完整也不成熟,因此以廉价的基础资源作为竞争手段的晶硅光伏并非东莞的选择。光伏产业前景光明,家电光伏及自发自用概念的推广将促使世界光伏产业进入新的浪潮。以技术和装备为竞争手段的高效薄膜光伏是东莞未来的方向,东莞过去五年在技术和装备制造能力的累积使东莞具有发展高效薄膜光伏电池的优势。通过创新的政策性保险担保公司结合引进的全风险发电保障可有效释放当地市场。因此,以高效光伏作为切入点,大力发展薄膜高效光伏是东莞未来应探索的道路。

The total size of the world photovoltaic industry is more than 50 billion US dollars, and the rise of home appliance photovoltaic and self-use applications will further expand the scale of the photovoltaic industry. Therefore, photovoltaic is the direction that any region that develops advanced manufacturing must pursue.From 2010 to 2011, the world photovoltaic frenzy, to promote the introduction of photovoltaic manufacturing projects throughout the country, the infinite light of solar energy so that governments and enterprises around the melting pot of the photovoltaic industry together regardless of their own lives. From 2012 to 2013, the photovoltaic boom gradually cooled down, and the photovoltaic industry entered a long winter.Enterprises brake and slow down the speed of progress, the huge gap between ideal and reality makes photovoltaic disputes everywhere, bankruptcy and debt restructuring has become the theme of the photovoltaic industry. In Dongguan, the commercial misunderstanding between Hongwei Digital and Dongguan Trust and Nancheng Qitai also evolved into the first case of photovoltaic dispute settled by criminal means in China. Although the event is still not over, but this independent event should not become a stumbling block in dongguan photovoltaic road forward.The development of high-end industry is never smooth, we should learn from the experience and lessons, reflect on the pain, fall and then climb up, together plan the future of dongguan photovoltaic road, in the photovoltaic industry to find opportunities for development in the difficulties.

Crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry is not the direction pursued by Dongguan. The core of crystalline silicon photovoltaic competition is cheap electricity and basic resources, which are lacking in Dongguan, and the local environmental carrying capacity is also limited. Therefore, in the absence of basic comparative advantages, crystalline silicon manufacturing chain is not the development direction of Dongguan. The competition of modern industry is multi-dimensional competition, including the competition between enterprises, regional supply chain and regional supply chain, and the competition between governments. Large-scale manufacturing, such as photovoltaic, is impossible without government support.Therefore, countries all over the world provide subsidies to the photovoltaic manufacturing industry in various ways. At present, China's photovoltaic industry is mainly based on crystalline silicon photovoltaic, the layout of photovoltaic provinces and regions in 10 years ago has formed a very mature industrial chain. Today, it is impossible for Dongguan to take the traditional silicon as a breakthrough point, but conversely, dongguan has a small silicon pack, which can break through with new technologies in the new wave of photovoltaic. In addition, crystalline silicon technology originated in the 1950s, and some parts of the manufacturing chain are energy-intensive and polluting.The consumption of cheap resources as a means of competition in the industry is not suitable for Dongguan. Therefore, no matter from the perspective of industrial competition or resource utilization, crystal silicon is not the choice of Guangdong and Dongguan.

Layout of a new generation of efficient thin film photovoltaic cells

The biggest advantage of distributed photovoltaic is that the power generated is consumed locally and nearby, so the pressure on the power grid is small, which is in line with economic benefits. However, large-scale ground power stations are different. Photovoltaic power is transmitted to distant places through high-voltage power grids. Since photovoltaic power generation has low working hours per day, but it takes up the same power grid resources as thermal power, it is not in line with the economic benefits of power grids, just like building a highway that can only be opened during the day and closed at night.In addition, in the field of distributed power generation, photovoltaic power has basically achieved parity grid connection under the concept of self-use, but large-scale ground photovoltaic power stations are still far from the cost of thermal power. Therefore, from the perspective of economics and the use of public resources, distributed generation is the mainstream of the current and future world.Since the roof is the installation carrier of distributed pv, the more efficient the photovoltaic cells are, the more popular they are under limited area conditions, because the higher power density enables the same roof to produce more electricity. Currently, the most efficient commercial photovoltaic cell in the world is a single crystal thin film solar cell produced by fusing thin film and N-type silicon wafer technology. Because vacuum coating is the core of the technology, traditional silicon manufacturers do not have an advantage and have to start from scratch.This kind of photovoltaic cells with thin film as the core can also apply for exemption from anti-dumping duties, providing conditions for the competition of latecomers and breaking through the anti-dumping sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Photovoltaic. In order for Dongguan to break out in the competition of photovoltaic, it is necessary to develop the second generation of high-efficiency photovoltaic with thin film technology as the core by combining government and civil forces.Dongguan has a comparative advantage in this respect -- it also has the ability of complete sets of equipment (the only one in China at present) and a complete supply chain of coating materials and packaging materials. This allows Dongguan not only to quickly establish industrial advantages, but also to the national industrial output, therefore, quickly determined layout of a new generation of efficient thin film battery is one of the roads that Dongguan should take to develop advanced manufacturing.

The city is rich in roofing resources. The official estimate is that 3GW of photovoltaic power generation systems can be installed in Dongguan, which means that the market can accommodate more than 20 billion yuan of investment and bring more than 15 billion yuan of orders for the photovoltaic manufacturing chain. Therefore, it is a waste not to use this resource to support the development of local photovoltaic manufacturing industry.From another point of view, such a large market can not be promoted by the government through subsidies of public financial resources. It is necessary to launch new policy tools, use insurance lever to release financial lever, make full use of private capital and financial capital to promote the development of the end market, and use local end market demand to drive the development of local photovoltaic manufacturing chain and new energy service industry.At present, the biggest problem in the development of distributed power generation in China is not the problem of return on investment, but the problem of independent and long-term financing of the project. The reason is that the policy design does not provide long-term stable cash flow for photovoltaic power generation, nor does it have a credible buyer.Therefore, property owners must pledge their property or land as collateral before banks can provide financing for projects, which restricts the market development of photovoltaic power generation. And it would be wrong for local governments to add subsidies to the already high rate of return on investment provided by state aid.We should start with reducing investment risk and breaking through financing obstacles. By breaking through the financing barrier, owners can leverage their loans to increase the return on equity, thereby reducing the amount of subsidy required.

In terms of risk reduction, the government can introduce foreign insurance companies or promote local insurance companies to provide full-risk insurance of electricity generation for photovoltaic projects. According to the experience of Europe, the ten-year full-risk insurance only increases system investment by 1.5%. At present, the return of distributed generation consists of two parts: the first is the subsidy of 0.42 yuan/KWH provided by the state, and the second is the electricity saved by users for their own use. As user's self-use is a variable, cash flow is unpredictable, and user's long-term credit may not be high enough, and photovoltaic assets have no collateral value, thus causing financing obstacles. To solve this problem, the concept of insurance will change the risk of single owner into the average risk of universal credit, and the photovoltaic insurance company will provide guarantees to banks, so that banks can release long-term capital with confidence.In the above operation, the PV insurance company solved the generation risk problem of the project, while the PV guarantee company solved the credit problem of the owner. From foreign experience, the default rate of photovoltaic power generation owners is very low, and the law of large numbers can be used to spread the risk.

Conclusion: Compared with other clusters of crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry, Dongguan lacks comparative advantages and the industrial chain is incomplete and immature. Therefore, the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry with cheap basic resources as a means of competition is not the choice of Dongguan. Photovoltaic industry has a bright future, and the promotion of home appliance photovoltaic and self-use concept will promote the world photovoltaic industry into a new wave. High efficiency thin film photovoltaic with technology and equipment as the means of competition is the future direction of Dongguan, Dongguan in the past five years in the accumulation of technology and equipment manufacturing capacity so that dongguan has the advantage of developing high efficiency thin film photovoltaic cells. Innovative policy-based insurance guarantee companies combined with the introduction of full-risk power generation guarantee can effectively unleash the local market. Therefore, with efficient photovoltaic as the entry point, to vigorously develop thin-film efficient photovoltaic is the road that Dongguan should explore in the future.


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