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隆基股份已豪掷400多亿,锁定至少200GW硅片用料

        针对自身制造端环节的唯一“短板”,光伏龙头隆基股份(601012.SH)正在通过绑定长单的方式加快补足。2月8日晚间,隆基股份公告称,旗下九家子公司与 OCIM Sdn. Bhd.(下称OCIM) 签订了三年期多晶硅料采购合同。根据协议,2021年3月至2024年2月期间,隆基股份方将向OCIM采购多晶硅料约7.77万吨。如按照中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会2月3日公布的单晶致密料成交均价9.25万元/吨测算,预估本合同总金额约63.6亿元。OCIM为韩国上市公司 OCI Company Ltd.的全资子公司,主营多晶硅生产与销售业务。
       根据硅业分会统计,截至2020年底,全球硅料企业产能排名依次为保利协鑫(03800.HK)、通威股份(600438.SH)、特变电工(600089.SH)、新疆大全、东方希望、德国瓦克和OCIM。 隆基股份称,上述合同通过锁量不锁价、按月议价、分批采购的长单方式。隆基股份称,这有利于保障公司多晶硅原材料的长期稳定供应。深圳古瑞瓦特公司首席产品经理刘继茂对界面新闻指出,隆基股份从硅片、电池片到组件的的垂直一体化布局,给国内的竞争对手形成很大的压力。包括通威、协鑫在内的国内厂家,既是合作伙伴也是竞争对手。为了确保材料供应,硅料此次向韩国OCI采购。对此,隆基股份内部人士对界面新闻表示,公司和OCI一直有合作,2018年的签约到期了,这次是续签。    经界面新闻统计,截至目前,包括OCIM,隆基股份已与五家硅料商绑定。
       2020年8月,隆基股份与亚洲硅业约定,将于2020年9月1日-2025年8月31日向其采购12.48万吨硅料,合同金额约94.98亿元。9月,隆基股份宣布7.84亿元参股通威股份通威股份旗下云南硅料公司,持有股权为49%。此外,双方以每年10.18万吨硅料为合作基础目标,通威股份将优先满足2020-2021年隆基股份的硅料需求。12月,隆基股份与特变电工约定,将于2021年1月-2025年12月期间,向后者采购原生多晶硅料,合计不少于27万吨,合同金额约192.35亿元。
       2021年2月,隆基股份与保利协鑫约定,将于2021年3月-2023年12月期间向其采购不少于9.14万吨的硅料,合同金额约73.28亿元。 按此计算,隆基股份自去年8月以来,已明确与OCIM、特变电工、亚洲硅业、保利协鑫四家硅料商签定56.39万吨硅料,合同金额共约424.21亿元。 硅料为光伏产品制造的基础原材料,也是光伏企业进行垂直一体化扩产的必需品。2020年7月以来,由于新疆疫情、硅料生产事故及安全自查、四川洪水等多因素影响,硅料供应紧缺,价格一度上涨至百元每公斤,较去年年初涨幅达34%,较5-6月的低谷上涨了66%。 2月3日,中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会副秘书长马海天预计,2021年硅料仍是光伏产业链中供应最为紧张的环节之一。从供需角度分析,上半年总体供应相对过剩;下半年供不应求的状况会越发明显,价格或呈现加速上涨的态势。 “从众多长单签订情况看,表明多个头部企业已经在为新一年供应链安全做准备。所以,大部分产量已被锁定。”马海天称。
       界面新闻获悉,目前1 GW硅片的用料量大致在2800-3000吨左右。按此推算,56.39万吨的硅料约可以满188 GW-201 GW的硅片生产,是隆基股份当前硅片产能的约2.3倍。 考虑到硅片出货量与尺寸、厚度、金刚线路径等指标相关,预计隆基股份已签订硅料相对应的硅片出货量应远高于此。 光伏制造端可大致分为硅料、硅片、电池片及组件四个制造环节。
       目前,隆基股份已在硅片、组件两大环节登顶全球。截至2020年底,该公司硅片、电池、组件产能分别为85 GW、35 GW、40 GW。 硅料目前为隆基股份唯一没有涉足的制造端环节。该公司拥有非常庞大的产能扩张目标,需要充足的原料供给。 隆基股份预计,到2021年中期,其硅片产能将达100 GW,2021年底将达110 GW。 一位业内人士对界面新闻指出,隆基股份近年快速发展,也得益于他们坚定不移的“大客户战略”,同时保证了量的供应和价格的优势。 “特别是前期玻璃紧张时,像隆基这种头部企业,比其他企业采购有接近10%的折价。”该人士表示。 去年三季度开始,受制于供应紧缺,光伏玻璃开启涨价潮,最高涨幅近100%。
       8日晚间,隆基股份还宣布,在此前与福莱特(601865.SH)原协议约定的2021年光伏玻璃年度采购数量9592万平方米的基础上,追加采购量2786万平方米,并约定2022-2023年按照46 GW组件用量,向后者采购光伏玻璃。  截至目前,隆基股份已与南玻A(000012.SZ)、福莱特、亚玛顿(002623.SZ)、彩虹新能源(00438.HK)签订采购长单。 2020年,隆基股份预计实现归母净利82亿-86亿元,同比增加55.3%-62.88%,再创历史新高。2017-2019年,隆基股份归母净利分别实现35.6亿元、25.6亿元、52.8亿元,已连续三年为A股最赚钱光伏企业。 2020年以来,隆基股份市值相继突破2000亿、3000亿、4000亿元关口,为最受资本青睐的光伏股之一,接连刷新全球光伏企业最高市值纪录。

For their own manufacturing end link of the only "short board", the photovoltaic leading Longji shares (601012.SH) is bound by the way of long order to speed up the complement. On the evening of Feb. 8, Longi announced that nine of its subsidiaries have signed three-year polysilicon procurement contracts with OCIM Sdn. Bhd. (OCIM). Under the agreement, Longi will purchase approximately 77,700 tons of polysilicon material from OCIM between March 2021 and February 2024. According to the average transaction price of single crystal compact material announced by China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Branch on February 3, it is estimated that the total amount of this contract is about 6.36 billion yuan. OCIM is a wholly owned subsidiary of South Korea's listed OCI Company Ltd., mainly engaged in the production and sales of polysilicon.

According to the statistics of the Silicon Industry Branch, by the end of 2020, the global silicon material enterprises' production capacity ranks GCL-Poly (03800.HK), Tongwei (600438.SH), TBIA (600088.SH), Xinjiang Daqo, Oriental Hope, Wakker and OCIM in order. Longji shares said that the above contract through the lock volume lock price, by monthly bargaining, batch procurement of long single way. Longji shares said, this is conducive to the protection of the company's long-term stable supply of polysilicon raw materials. Liu Jimao, chief product manager of Shenzhen Guiruiwatt, told Jiemian News that Longi's vertically integrated layout, from silicon wafers to batteries to components, puts a lot of pressure on its domestic competitors. Domestic manufacturers, including Tongwei and GCL, are both partners and competitors.In order to ensure material supply, the silicon material will be purchased from Korea OCI this time. In this regard, Longji insider told Jiemian News that the company and OCI have been cooperating, the 2018 contract expired, this time is a renewal. According to statistics of Jiemian news, so far, including OCIM, Longji shares have been bound with five silicon material companies.

In August 2020, Longji Co., Ltd. agreed with Asia Silicon Industry to purchase 124,800 tons of silicon materials from it from September 1, 2020 to August 31, 2025, with a contract amount of about RMB 9.498 billion. In September, Longji announced a stake of 784 million yuan in Tongwei's Yunnan Silicon Material Company, for a 49 percent stake. In addition, with the cooperation target of 101,800 tons of silicon material per year, Tongwei will give priority to meet Longji's silicon material demand in 2020-2021. In December, Longji Co., Ltd. agreed with TBIA to purchase raw polysilicon materials from the latter from January 2021 to December 2025, with a total amount of no less than 270,000 tons, and the contract amount is about 19.235 billion yuan.

In February 2021, Longi Co., Ltd. agreed with GCL-Poly to purchase no less than 91,400 tons of silicon materials from it from March 2021 to December 2023, with a contract amount of about 7.328 billion yuan. According to this calculation, since last August, Longji Co., Ltd. has signed 563,900 tons of silicon materials with four silicon material suppliers, OCIM, TBA, Asia Silicon Industry and GCL-Poly, with a total contract amount of about 42.421 billion yuan.Silicon material is the basic raw material for photovoltaic products manufacturing, and it is also necessary for photovoltaic enterprises to carry out vertical integration expansion. Since July 2020, due to the epidemic situation in Xinjiang, silicon material production accident and safety self-inspection, Sichuan flood and other factors, silicon material supply is in short supply, and the price of silicon material once rose to 100 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 34% compared with the beginning of last year, and 66% compared with the trough in May and June.On February 3, Ma Haitian, deputy secretary general of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Silicon Branch, predicted that silicon materials will remain one of the most tight supply links in the photovoltaic industry chain in 2021. From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall supply of the first half of the relative surplus;In the second half of the year, the shortage of supply will become more obvious, and the price may accelerate the trend of rising. "The signing of the long order from the crowd shows that a number of leading enterprises have been preparing for the New Year of supply chain security. So most of the production has been locked in." "Ma said.

Interface news learned that at present, 1 GW silicon wafer material is roughly about 2800-3000 tons.Based on this calculation, 563,900 tons of silicon material can be about 188 GW-201 GW of wafer production, which is about 2.3 times of Longi's current wafer production capacity. Considering the silicon wafer shipment is related to the size, thickness, diamond line path and other indicators, it is expected that the silicon wafer shipment corresponding to the signed silicon material of Longji Stock should be much higher than this.The photovoltaic manufacturing end can be roughly divided into four manufacturing links: silicon material, silicon wafer, battery wafer and module.

At present, Longji shares have been in the silicon wafer, components of the two major links to top the world.By the end of 2020, the company's wafer, battery and module capacity will be 85 GW, 35 GW and 40 GW, respectively. Silicone is currently the only manufacturing link that Longi shares have not been involved in. The company has a very large capacity expansion target and needs a sufficient supply of raw materials. Longi expects its wafer capacity to reach 100 GW by mid-2021 and 110 GW by the end of 2021. An industry insider pointed out to Jiemian News that the rapid development of Longji shares in recent years also benefited from their unswerving "big customer strategy", while ensuring the quantity of supply and price advantages. "Especially when the glass is tight in the early stage, the head enterprise like Longji has a discount of nearly 10% compared with other enterprises." The person said. Beginning in the third quarter of last year, subject to supply shortage, photovoltaic glass opened the price rise, the highest rise of nearly 100%.

On the evening of 8th, Longji also announced that it will purchase an additional amount of 27.86 million square meters of photovoltaic glass in 2021 on the basis of the 95.92 million square meters in the original agreement with Follett (60186.SH), and agreed to purchase photovoltaic glass from Follett in 2022-2023 in accordance with the amount of 46 GW modules. Up to now, Longji has signed A long purchase order with South Glass A(000012.SZ), Flette, Amadun (002623.SZ), Rainbow New Energy (00438.HK). In 2020, Longji Stock is expected to achieve a net profit of 8.2 billion to 8.6 billion yuan, an increase of 55.3%-62.88% over the same period last year, hitting a new record high. From 2017 to 2019, Longji's net profit to its parent reached 3.56 billion yuan, 2.56 billion yuan and 5.28 billion yuan respectively, and it has been the most profitable A-share photovoltaic enterprise for three consecutive years. Since 2020, the market value of Longji shares has exceeded 200 billion yuan, 300 billion yuan and 400 billion yuan one after another, making it one of the most favored photovoltaic stocks by capital and breaking the record of the highest market value of photovoltaic enterprises in the world.




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