Recently, the news of the provincial power cuts and the solar panels have been mentioned in many families' emergency supplies reserve lists, so that the business of household solar power generation has been discussed by many netizens again. Bulls think: under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon peak, the cost of coal power
generation will rise, and the demand for alternative energy will rise; The price of solar power equipment
has continued to fall, not only to ensure that their own electricity supply, but also to sell to power companies to make money. Isn't
there more room for home solar? Bearish people think: the recovery cycle is long, the investment return
is relatively low, without subsidies there is no motivation; Deployment environment has certain requirements,
installation in the renovation of the roof increase trouble; Need regular maintenance, overhaul, bring
additional costs...... Both sides sounded reasonable and intrigued me. As I studied the progress of the home solar industry, both at home and abroad, I found that the polarization of the field was stark: old
and new -- devices like photovoltaic panels and solar collectors became popular as early as 1860, when scientists believed fossil fuels would become scarce; However,
until today, solar energy is still regarded as a new energy and new industry in the ascendant. According to industry data presented at the pv industry development Review in the first half of 2019 and outlook for the second half of 2019,
solar and other renewable energy sources account for only 20% of the total power generation. Village
-- throughout the global market, both the yankees and solar energy to solve the demand to support family, one kind is the residents of the modern western countries such as Europe and the United States, Australia, in 2015, the global photovoltaic
total installed capacity of more than 40 million kw, the main market in Germany, Spain, Japan, Italy, Germany new power capacity in 2015 alone 7 million kilowatts. The
other is China's rural areas, where household solar power is concentrated, and many central and western regions see the photovoltaic industry as an important poverty-alleviation measure. The common characteristic is single-family building, the roof is easy to tear down and change.
More and less -- there is not necessarily a positive correlation between solar resources and the solar power industry. For example, Africa is the continent with the most concentrated sunlight in the world, and solar energy resources are abundant. However, in reality, South
Africa is the only country on the African continent with more than 50 MEGAwatts of photovoltaic power stations. California
has more solar power plants than all of Africa, with twice as much installed solar capacity as all of Nigeria. Europe
also has a fraction of Africa's solar resources, but more solar equipment. This polarisation gives the
home solar industry a dumbbell structure, concentrated in developed and less developed regions. As we
all know, consumption markets in cities and towns often have "income effect", "demonstration effect", "linkage effect" and "cumulative effect". Therefore,
the stable market structure is often in the middle of the consumer group as the main "spindle". This also
shows a basic fact of the development of home solar energy industry: to embrace a leap forward growth, we need to accelerate the optimization from "dumbbell" to "spindle", actively embrace the city and town market, and end the current
"polarization" situation. So is it possible to blanket cities with solar panels? It is difficult to persuade the vast majority of urban residents to invest real money and human and material resources in environmental protection
alone. Therefore, many countries will design a series of incentives and subsidies when implementing
sustainable energy strategies. In 2006, for example, the California Legislature introduced the California
Solar Initiative, which has led to a rush to install solar systems for homes. Policy alone is not enough.
Household consumers in the middle of the market will have to jump three hurdles to embrace solar power.
First: is the business model reasonable?
solar systems are generally considered to be "one-shot, 25-year payback" investments that typically offer long-term value.
can calculate an account, the general 1kW PHOTOVOLTAIC power generation system, can be used for home lighting, television, computer use;
PHOTOVOLTAIC power generation system can meet the living electricity demand of a family of 3 people, especially the kitchen electricity;
5kW PHOTOVOLTAIC power generation system can meet the needs of a family of 5 people.
users tend to choose 5kW capacity, roughly need to invest 40,000-100,000 yuan.
2017, a household 5KW solar power system of a well-known enterprise in China cost 40,000 yuan to install. After subsidies, a 5KW solar power system in Arizona in the United States costs about 10,000 DOLLARS.
survey of 2,200 homeowners suggests the cost of investment is too high to consider.
addition, through "spontaneous self-use, surplus electricity to access the Internet", "full access to the Internet" and other modes, to obtain electricity return, the current cycle often takes 5-7 years, then can enter the profit period.
present, green energy subsidies are generally around 20-30%, and the United States will provide 26% of the installation cost of solar power systems in 2020.
it is rolled out on a large scale and subsidies are removed, the profit cycle will continue to be extended later.
if rural residents lack a safe and reliable investment channel, it is not wrong to put their spare money into household PHOTOVOLTAIC power generation.
urbanites, with their digitalization and wealth of financial products and services, may find this a bit of a stretch.
most practical solution would probably be to place a photovoltaic panel outside the window for emergency charging of home computers, mobile phones and other devices.
in this way, and how much market space?
Second: Does long-term security exist?
course, there may be those who are willing to support green energy unconditionally, or who are willing to put solar power systems in their homes to satisfy their thirst for electricity.
certainly support this spirit.
before you choose the relevant equipment, be sure to think about the late operation and maintenance problems.
mentioned above, it takes more than 5 years for household solar power generation to be break-even/profitable. The maintenance of photovoltaic panels, aging of batteries, attenuation of related components, etc., will bring the need for
long-term cleaning and care, otherwise it will affect the light energy conversion efficiency and reduce power generation.
Australia and other places, solar home power generation system was started 30 years ago, and a relatively mature market mechanism and service system has been formed. Consumers do not have to worry too much about equipment suppliers going
out of business or failing to find after-sales service.
caotai team maintenance of security risks.
addition, the cost recovery period of household solar energy is relatively long, and the sustainability of the policy needs to be taken into consideration, otherwise any change will become "electricity from love".
for example, spent $16 billion on solar power in 2015, but it failed because of government problems.
is why a report by Gridovate, a global industry forum, argues that Africa has the best solar potential in the world, but real industrial development is far from adequate.
sustainable and predictable long-term guarantee mechanism is the key to the competitiveness of the solar industry.
Third: is urban development allowed?
addition to the rigid requirements of solar resources, domestic solar power needs to be close to the main grid to reduce investment in new transmission lines.
the same time, it should be close to the power load center to reduce transmission loss.
with rural users with small and scattered electricity loads, it seems more economic to develop residential solar power in cities.
present, China's urbanization rate has reached 56% in statistics, appears to be a huge market space, but it is important to note that the "industrialization promoting urbanization" of European and American modern city construction, expansion
in the city at the same time, also produced a lot of problems, such as financial capital gathering cause asset prices are high,
per-capita living space in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen all below the national average, what kind of family would have to find 20-30 square meters of sunny, open, south-facing roofs to install photovoltaic
economically developed jiangsu and other places, are generally houses or villas and so on in the roof.
barriers, further limit the scale of users.
for example, in the past, the rapid development of large and medium-sized cities in China, in terms of infrastructure, public space left many defects, in recent years many cities have started the upgrade beautification, in order to improve
the living environment, improve residents' life happiness, in the residential area equipped with photovoltaic panels will effect the beauty of the village of degrees, causing a certain amount of light pollution,
is hard to imagine cities on the road to beauty encouraging blu-hued photovoltaic panels.
middle of the market is difficult to move, is household solar power not to go down?
China's efforts to promote urbanization, rural revitalization and other measures may bring new opportunities to the household solar industry.
market, not necessarily the rise of the middle, can also be tail to the middle of the flow, right?
the future of home solar energy, like many industries, lies in green countryside, ecological China.