今天，我想跟大家重点聊一聊隆基股份的逆袭之路。要了解他的逆袭，就必须先了解一下光伏发电技术。1839年，法国科学家Edmond Becquerel 在实验室里面，一次偶然的情况发现光被某种材料吸收后会产生电压时，于是，光伏发电的种子就此埋下。但是直到100年以后，贝尔实验室的物理学家在1953年发现硅比硒更有效，创造了第一个实用的太阳能电池。这一发现导致太阳能电池能够为电气设备供电。1956年，Western Electric开始出售其硅光伏技术的商业许可证，但硅太阳能电池的高昂成本使它们无法在市场上普遍饱和。直至今天光伏已经发展成为一个万亿大市场，然而技术起源于法国，而产业发展却蓬勃发展于中国，并成就了一家行业霸主级别的企业隆基股份。光伏发电的发展就像它的历史一样曲折而激烈。产业化提倡了很久，政府也做了对应的补贴，但是在很长一段时间都难以实现突破式发展。因为要想真正实现产业化就必须能够平价上网，平价上网才是光伏行业的起点。没能平价上网，也就是意味着运营商不能赚钱，单靠政府补贴的话就是垂死挣扎罢了。 所以平价上网对于光伏行业来说意义非凡。
但是，单晶硅的缺点也是很明显的，那就是成本高、技术难度大。其实别的公司也想走单晶硅路线，但是考虑到成本和技术难度就放弃了。只有隆基股份2006年把自身命运押在了单晶硅上，并一直专注于解决单晶硅技术的相关障碍，最终大获成功。 隆基股份的年报中也明确写道：”在技术路线选 择方面，2006 年公司在深入研判光伏行业各类技术路线后，选择了单晶路线作为技术发展方向，凭借工匠精神始终保持专注，发展成为全球最大的单晶硅片供应商，近些年在公司的引领下单晶 在全球市场占有率快速提升，现已实现逆转并主导了市场格局；在硅片切割技术方面，公司在行 2019 年年度报告 13 / 296 业内率先实现了金刚线切割技术替代传统砂浆切割技术，并推动了切割设备与金刚石切割线的国 产化替代，使得切片环节成本快速下降，生产效率大幅提升。在电池组件方面，公司在行业内较 早布局并实现单晶 PERC 高效电池产能规模化，不断提升转换效率等技术指标，持续推动行业度电 成本的降低。““非对称竞争力”一旦形成，自然就是无敌状态。握有这一武器，竞争必据高地。某种意义上，“非对称竞争力”瞄准的是“泛蓝海”，避开杀声四起的“红海”，相对状态可以从容为之。
"The reverse attack of Longji shares once again shows how important the vision and courage of the company's leaders are." Last year until now, new energy, especially photovoltaic, has been hot speculation by the market. The stock price of the photovoltaic leader Longji shares rose 277.1% in 2020, and there is no sign of stopping after the year. In fact, Longji shares are not the most fierce, the most fierce is the industry's oldest three sunshine power supply, which rose 591% last year, and rose 23.13% after the year. Although the third brother is the most fierce, I care more about the first one, because the first one is generally more valuable for investment. Besides, the first one lives in the same city with me, so it is necessary to analyze it carefully. In fact, Longji is not the industry leader before 2015, the former leader in the photovoltaic field has always been Magnetics. As shown in the figure below, entering the names of these three companies in the Python program I wrote by myself will automatically generate a comparison chart of the revenue, net profit and ROE of each company over the years. As can be seen from the operating income comparison chart, the revenue scale of Longi Stock was below that of Magnetics before 2015, and it was the same level of player as Sunshine Power. However, after 2015, Longji's small universe and prehistorical powers suddenly broke out, and he quickly pulled away from the other two players, and the gap has a tendency of widening. Not only is the operating income, net profit gap is even bigger, less than 4 years, Longji shares of net profit is already five times the other two partners, almost not a heavyweight. It felt like a few runners in a race, originally neck and neck, but suddenly one of the runners like a rocket shot out of the track, skyrocketing. About Longji shares of financial analysis, you can see I recorded the video, I will no longer a figure a paragraph of text to write, too laborious.
Today, I would like to talk with you about the focus of Longji shares of the road against the attack. To understand his comeback, you must first look at photovoltaic technology. The seeds of photovoltaic power were sown in 1839 when French scientist Edmond Becquerel accidentally discovered in his laboratory that light absorbed by a material would generate a voltage. But it wasn't until 100 years later that physicists at Bell Labs discovered in 1953 that silicon was more efficient than selenium, creating the first practical solar cell. This discovery led to solar cells being able to power electrical equipment. Western Electric began selling commercial licenses for its silicon photovoltaic technology in 1956, but the high cost of silicon solar cells prevented them from saturating the market generally. Until today, photovoltaic has developed into a trillion-dollar market. However, the technology originated in France, while the industry development has flourished in China, and it has become a dominant company in the industry. The development of photovoltaic power generation is as tortuous and intense as its history.Industrialization has been advocated for a long time, and the government has also made corresponding subsidies, but it is difficult to achieve breakthrough development for a long time. Because in order to truly realize industrialization, we must be able to access the Internet at par, which is the starting point of the photovoltaic industry. The lack of affordable access means that operators can't make money and are struggling with government subsidies alone. So the parity of access to the photovoltaic industry is of great significance.
And in the process of parity access to the Internet, a little bit of seniority people know, photovoltaic has appeared monocrystalline silicon and polycrystalline silicon technology. Polysilicon was the mainstream choice of the industry at the beginning. In the era of polysilicon, GCL integration was the market leader, and many people had never heard of Longji. However, in 2006, there was a key person to join Longi shares, this person joined completely changed the fate of Longi. That person is Zhong Baoshen, the current chairman of Longji. After Zhong Baoshen joined Longji, after careful consideration, he firmly believed that it was difficult to occupy a favorable position in the same competitive environment with his rivals, and only by adopting asymmetric competition could he win. He believes that "common sense things, all companies do the same, the key to the success of the enterprise is how to build asymmetric competitive power". It is this "asymmetric competitiveness", Longji shares from the market strangled in the dish. Zhong Baoshen's so-called "asymmetric competitiveness" refers to the monocrystalline silicon route. Because monocrystalline silicon has the following advantages:
1. Under the same conditions, the power generation of single crystal components is higher;2. Less power attenuation during long-term use of single crystal components; 3. The weak light response of single crystal module is better;
However, the disadvantages of monocrystalline silicon are also very obvious, that is, high cost, technical difficulty.Other companies have tried to go the monocrystalline silicon route, but have given up because of the cost and technical difficulty. Only Longi, which bet its fortune on monocrystalline silicon in 2006, has been focusing on solving the related obstacles to monocrystalline silicon technology with great success. Longji stake in the annual report also explicitly writes: "in terms of technical route choice, 2006, the company in all kinds of technical route to in-depth photovoltaic industry, after a single route as the technology development direction, with the spirit always stay focused, and become the world's largest monocrystalline silicon chip suppliers, under the guidance of our company in recent years rapid ascension, single crystal in the global market share has been implemented reverse and dominate the market pattern; In terms of silicon wafer cutting technology, the company took the lead in the industry to realize the substitution of diamond wire cutting technology for traditional mortar cutting technology in the 2019 annual report 13/296, and promoted the substitution of cutting equipment and diamond cutting line in China, which made the cost of slicing link decrease rapidly and the production efficiency greatly improved.In terms of battery components, the company in the industry earlier layout and achieve single crystal PERC efficient battery production capacity scale, constantly improve conversion efficiency and other technical indicators, continue to promote the industry to reduce the cost of per kilo. "Asymmetric competitiveness" once formed, naturally is invincible state.Armed with this weapon, the competition must be high ground. In a sense, "asymmetric competitiveness" is aimed at the "pan-blue ocean", avoid the noise of the "red sea", the relative state can calmly.
From Longji shares as early as 2000 aimed at the development of new energy pave blueprint can be seen, the private enterprise in the president of Li Zhenguo's vision, at the beginning of its birth is a general trend of "reverse thinking", the direction is the "Pan Blue Ocean". Because of this cognitive gene, it was possible to reach a strategic consensus on the development of monocrystalline silicon in 2006, when the company reached a critical stage of development. Even in 2016, the company has transformed its strategic thinking to build "the world's leading solar energy technology company", persistently adhering to the forging of "asymmetric competitiveness".
Longji shares of the reverse attack once again shows how important the vision and drive of the company's leaders.Therefore, value investors must have a deep understanding of the ability and drive of corporate leaders when choosing investment targets.
So Longji shares can buy it?Many friends ask me the same question.My answer is that if you understand a company's business model and moat, a careful analysis of its financial statements over the years, and serious research can convince you, the rest is a matter of timing. But waiting for the opportunity just like waiting for the stock price to rise also needs enough patience, because Mr. Market will make mistakes sooner or later, so try not to ride on the hot spot, because even the surging tide will recede sometime, when the tide recede, the rock of opportunity will be exposed.