In the past week, with the support of carbon neutral, photovoltaic, Hillhouse and other concepts, Longji shares are undoubtedly the star stocks in the stock market.On Monday, December 21, Longji announced that Li Chun 'an, the second shareholder of Hillhouse Capital, acquired 6% of the total share capital and invested 15.8 billion yuan to become the second largest shareholder of Longji.
Shares in Longi jumped 10% that day.As of Friday, December 25 (close), its share price was 93.45 yuan/share, up over 11.25% in a week.Hillhouse Capital, founded 15 years ago, is known for long-term investment. Longji shares is the third big investment project of Hillhouse Capital that exceeds "10 billion" level. The other two are: in 2018, it invested 41.7 billion yuan to buy Gree
Electric Appliances (000651.SZ), and on July 18, 2020, it subscribed for the private placement of lithium battery leading Ningde Times (300750.SZ) with 10 billion yuan. Some media concluded that the new energy industry has been within the ability of Hillhouse.
In 2019, Tesla (TSLA.US), NIO (NIO.US) and Ningde Times appeared many times in Hillhouse Capital's positions. This year, outstanding targets in the photovoltaic industry have become an area of Hillhouse Capital's heavy position.
Since 2020, Hillhouse Capital has successively increased Enjie shares (002812.SZ) and Tongwei shares (600438.SH), with an investment scale ranging from hundreds of millions to one billion.
1.A - share rare target
According to the statistics of Securities Times · Databao, as of December 17, that is, before the entrance of Hillhouse, Longji shares have been net bought by northwards funds for the 10th consecutive day. During the period, Longji shares have achieved a total turnover of 8.208 billion yuan through Shanghai Stock Connect, with a total net purchase of 1.878 billion yuan. If you stretch that out to a year, Longi shares are up more than 379%.Since its listing in 2012, Longji's stock price has been depressed for a long time, staying below 20 to 30 yuan for a long time. It did not start to explode until the first half of this year. Longji shares, with A market value of more than 300 billion yuan, are rare A-share targets.After more than a decade of development, Longi has become the world's largest manufacturer of monocrystalline silicon, which can be described as the world's leading photovoltaic industry, covering the whole PV industry chain of monocrystalline silicon, Longi Le Leaf PV, Longi New Energy and Longi Clean Energy. Its monocrystalline silicon wafers account for 40% of the global market share. Meanwhile, photovoltaic modules, another major business line of the company, are also expected to become the world's first. Guoyuan Securities in 2021 photovoltaic industry strategy report analysis, the component market pattern is scattered, with the development of technology and brand effect, with cost advantages of the integrated leader will continue to expand
share. Taking Longi as an example, Longi extends from silicon wafers to components downstream. After opening channels to establish brands, it develops rapidly with first-class brands and cost advantages. By December 2020, Longi has become
the first component leader whose annual shipments break through 20GW.From the financial data, Longji shares of performance is also very bright. In 2019, the company's operating income, net profit attributable to the parent and non-net profit withheld were 32.9 billion yuan, 5.28 billion yuan and 5.09 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 49.6%, 106.4%
and 117.4% respectively.In the first three quarters of this year, the income, net profit attributed to the mother and net profit attributed to the mother after deduction were 33.832 billion yuan, 6.357 billion yuan and 6.014 billion yuan, respectively, up 49.08%, 82.44% and 76.35% year-on-year. In addition, Longji shares management is recognized by the industry, a well-known investor on Longji shares evaluation is: rarely in history to see a mainstream product has been formed and replaced by the situation, but Longji
shares dry (monocrystalline silicon instead of polycrystalline silicon become the mainstream product);In history, there are few enterprises that have formed an industrial cluster and can do things outside the industrial cluster (Xi 'an outside Jiangsu and Zhejiang), but Longji shares have also done.
2.Driven by the trend of environmental protection and global policies, carbon neutrality has become a global consensus, and the growth of the photovoltaic industry has been highlighted, ushered in an accelerated upward phase. On December 22, the fourth quarter meeting of China's "Power Roundtable" was held, and the goal of adding 120GW of installed power in 2021 was put forward. Moreover, the National Energy Work Conference in 2021 also pointed out that the consumption and storage capacity of new energy should be greatly enhanced in 2021, the construction of power grid should be further optimized and improved,
and the construction of a new generation power system suitable for the development of high proportion, large scale and renewable energy should be accelerated. The domestic installed capacity target has been climbing since it set a target of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and being carbon neutral by 2060. According to the data of China Electricity Union, since September 2020, the domestic monthly installed capacity has accelerated, the year-on-year growth rate has more than doubled, and there is a high probability of installation
in December. Looking forward to the 14th Five-Year Plan, it is expected that the domestic average annual installed capacity will increase by nearly one time and continue to dominate the global PV installed capacity ranking. In the future, it will be an irreversible trend for green energy to replace fossil energy, and photovoltaic plays an irreplaceable role in this energy revolution. Before that, Li Zhenguo, president of Longji Group, shared in an annual strategy meeting of the fund: in the energy outlook of the government and large enterprises, photovoltaic is listed as the most important energy source in the world in the future; In most countries and regions of the world, PV has become the cheapest and most cost-effective energy for investment. Renewable energy, represented by photovoltaic, is expected to achieve energy independence and autonomy of all countries in the world, thus eliminating international disputes caused by energy shortage and realizing the pattern of
global peace. These factors determine the bright prospect of photovoltaic industry. Recently, Ren Yuzhi, director of the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, estimated that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic power may reach about 35GW this year, and the cumulative installed capacity
of photovoltaic power will reach 240 million kilowatts by the end of the year. By the end of the year, the scale of photovoltaic power will surpass wind power and become the third largest power source in China.
At present, more and more long-term capital has gradually entered the leading photovoltaic enterprises, which also shows the long-term value of the industry. In the past, because the photovoltaic industry has a strong cyclical, if the parity of access to the Internet, subsidies exit as a sign of maturity, this growth road, the photovoltaic industry is more than 10 years.
Because of the volatility of the industry and the long growth cycle, there are not many successful capital exits.However, the cyclicality of PV will gradually be worn out as more and more regions get affordable access to the Internet. Starting from 2021, new PV installations in China will be almost entirely affordable projects, and endogenous driving forces will become the core force for the development of the domestic market, said the research report by Kaixin Securities. The reduction of electricity cost makes photovoltaic power generation economical, highlights its industrial value, and strengthens its role in replacing petrochemical energy. The analysts also said that in terms of corporate targets, long-term optimistic about competitive enterprises, such as Longji shares, Tongwei shares, etc.; In the medium term, it is optimistic about the technological change through the cycle, such as the cost optimization brought by the upsizing of products, heterojunction to improve the conversion efficiency of batteries, granular silicon, new
application scenarios, etc.In the short term, 2021 is the stage of the revolution of the photovoltaic supply side, and the prosperity of silicon materials and glass is good.