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光伏革命年:2021年隆基股份开始起飞!

        在即将过去的这一周,在碳中和、光伏、高瓴等概念的加持下, 隆基股份无疑是股市中的明星股。12月21日周一,隆基股份发布公告称,高瓴资本受让公司二股东李春安占总股本6%的股份,斥资158亿元,成为隆基股份第二大股东。当日,隆基股份的股价大涨10%。截至12月25日(周五)收盘,其股价为93.45元/股,一周累计涨幅超11.25%。成立15年的高瓴资本以长期投资著称,隆基股份是其第三笔超过“百亿级”的投资大项目,其他两笔分别为:2018年斥资417亿元入主格力电器(000651.SZ),以及2020年7月18日以100亿元认购锂电池龙头宁德时代(300750.SZ)的定增。有媒体总结道,新能源行业一直处在高瓴的能力圈以内。2019年,特斯拉(TSLA.US)、蔚来(NIO.US)、宁德时代多次出现在高瓴资本的持仓中。今年,光伏行业的优秀标的成为高瓴资本重仓的一个领域。2020年以来,高瓴资本先后加码恩捷股份(002812.SZ)、通威股份(600438.SH)等,投资规模在数亿到十数亿之间。 
       1。A股稀有标的
据证券时报·数据宝统计,截至12月17日,也就是在高瓴入场之前,隆基股份已经连续第10日被北向资金净买入,期间隆基股份获沪股通累计成交82.08亿元,合计净买入18.78亿元。如果把时间拉长到一年,隆基股份的股价涨幅超过379%。从2012年上市至今,隆基的股价低迷了很长一段时间,长期在20-30元以下,直到今年上半年才开始爆发。3000多亿市值的隆基股份可谓是A股的稀有标的。经过十多年的发展,隆基股份已成为全球最大的单晶硅生产制造商,可谓全球光伏龙头,产业覆盖了单晶硅、隆基乐叶光伏、隆基新能源、隆基清洁能源的光伏全产业链。其单晶硅片市占率为全球的40%,同时,公司的另一大业务线光伏组件也有望成为全球第一。国元证券在2021年光伏行业策略报告中分析道,组件市场格局分散,伴随技术发展以及品牌效应,具备成本优势的一体化龙头将持续扩大份额。以隆基为例,隆基从硅片向下游延伸至组件,打通渠道树立品牌后,凭借一流的品牌与成本优势快速发展,截至2020年12月,隆基成为首个年出货量突破20GW的组件龙头。从财务数据看,隆基股份的表现也十分亮眼。公司2019年营业收入、归母净利润、扣非净利润分别为329亿元、52.8亿元、50.9亿元,同比分别增长49.6%、106.4%、117.4%。而今年前三季度的收入、归母净利润、扣非后归母净利润分别为338.32亿元、63.57亿元、60.14亿元,同比分别增长49.08%、82.44%、76.35%。另外,隆基股份的管理层也被行业认可,一位知名投资人对隆基股份的评价是:历史上很少看到一个主流产品已经形成又被替代的情况,但隆基股份干成了(单晶硅取代多晶硅成为主流产品);历史上也很少出现已经形成了产业集群、还能在产业集群外把事干成了的企业(江浙以外的西安),但隆基股份也干成了。 
     2。光伏赛道上行在环保趋势和全球政策推动下,碳中和成为全球共识,光伏产业的成长性凸显,迎来加速上行阶段。12月22日,中国“电力圆桌”四季度会议召开,提出2021年我国风光新增装机120GW的目标。而且2021年全国能源工作会议也指出,2021年需要大力提升新能源消纳和存储能力,进一步优化完善电网建设,加快构建适应高比例、大规模、可再生能源发展的新一代电力系统。自从提出了2030年前碳排放达峰值,以及2060年碳中和的目标后,国内装机目标逐步攀升。隆基股份灵武228MW光伏电站 来源:隆基股份官网根据中电联数据,2020年9月起,国内月度装机加速,同比增幅在一倍以上,12月大概率发生抢装。展望“十四五”,预计国内年均装机水平提升近一倍,继续霸榜全球光伏装机排名。未来,绿色能源替代化石能源将是不可逆转的趋势,而光伏在这一能源革命中具有不可替代的作用。隆基股份总裁李振国 来源:隆基股份官网此前,隆基股份总裁李振国在一次基金年度策略会上分享道:在政府和大企业的能源展望中,光伏被列为未来全球最主要的能源;在全球绝大多数国家和地区,光伏已经成为最便宜、最有投资性价比的能源;以光伏为代表的可再生能源,有望实现全球各国的能源独立与自主,从而消除因为能源短缺导致的国际争端,实现全球和平的格局,这些因素决定了光伏产业的明朗前景。近日,国家能源局新能源司司长任育之预计,今年光伏新增装机可能达到35GW左右,年底光伏发电的累计装机将达到2.4亿千瓦,年底光伏发电规模将超过风电,成为全国第三大电源。
目前,越来越多长期资本逐步进入光伏龙头企业,也显示出产业的长期价值。过去,由于光伏产业具有较强的周期性,如果说以平价上网、补贴退出作为成熟的标志,这条成长之路,光伏行业一走就是10多年。
        正是因为行业的波动幅度巨大,且成长周期长,资本成功退出的案例并不多。不过,随着越来越多地区实现平价上网,光伏的周期性将逐渐被磨平。开源证券的研究报告称,2021年起,国内新增光伏装机几乎完全是平价项目,内生驱动力成为国内市场发展的核心力量。电力成本的降低,使得光伏发电具备经济性,产业价值凸显,对石化能源的替代作用加强。上述分析师还表示,在公司标的方面,长期看好有竞争力的企业,如隆基股份、通威股份等;中期看好穿越周期的技术变革,如产品大型化带来的成本优化、提升电池转化效率的异质结、颗粒硅、新型应用场景等;短期看,2021年是光伏供给端革命的阶段,硅料、玻璃等环节景气度较好。


In the past week, with the support of carbon neutral, photovoltaic, Hillhouse and other concepts, Longji shares are undoubtedly the star stocks in the stock market.On Monday, December 21, Longji announced that Li Chun 'an, the second shareholder of Hillhouse Capital, acquired 6% of the total share capital and invested 15.8 billion yuan to become the second largest shareholder of Longji. Shares in Longi jumped 10% that day.As of Friday, December 25 (close), its share price was 93.45 yuan/share, up over 11.25% in a week.Hillhouse Capital, founded 15 years ago, is known for long-term investment. Longji shares is the third big investment project of Hillhouse Capital that exceeds "10 billion" level. The other two are: in 2018, it invested 41.7 billion yuan to buy Gree Electric Appliances (000651.SZ), and on July 18, 2020, it subscribed for the private placement of lithium battery leading Ningde Times (300750.SZ) with 10 billion yuan. Some media concluded that the new energy industry has been within the ability of Hillhouse. In 2019, Tesla (TSLA.US), NIO (NIO.US) and Ningde Times appeared many times in Hillhouse Capital's positions. This year, outstanding targets in the photovoltaic industry have become an area of Hillhouse Capital's heavy position. Since 2020, Hillhouse Capital has successively increased Enjie shares (002812.SZ) and Tongwei shares (600438.SH), with an investment scale ranging from hundreds of millions to one billion.

1.A - share rare target

According to the statistics of Securities Times · Databao, as of December 17, that is, before the entrance of Hillhouse, Longji shares have been net bought by northwards funds for the 10th consecutive day. During the period, Longji shares have achieved a total turnover of 8.208 billion yuan through Shanghai Stock Connect, with a total net purchase of 1.878 billion yuan. If you stretch that out to a year, Longi shares are up more than 379%.Since its listing in 2012, Longji's stock price has been depressed for a long time, staying below 20 to 30 yuan for a long time. It did not start to explode until the first half of this year. Longji shares, with A market value of more than 300 billion yuan, are rare A-share targets.After more than a decade of development, Longi has become the world's largest manufacturer of monocrystalline silicon, which can be described as the world's leading photovoltaic industry, covering the whole PV industry chain of monocrystalline silicon, Longi Le Leaf PV, Longi New Energy and Longi Clean Energy. Its monocrystalline silicon wafers account for 40% of the global market share. Meanwhile, photovoltaic modules, another major business line of the company, are also expected to become the world's first. Guoyuan Securities in 2021 photovoltaic industry strategy report analysis, the component market pattern is scattered, with the development of technology and brand effect, with cost advantages of the integrated leader will continue to expand share. Taking Longi as an example, Longi extends from silicon wafers to components downstream. After opening channels to establish brands, it develops rapidly with first-class brands and cost advantages. By December 2020, Longi has become the first component leader whose annual shipments break through 20GW.From the financial data, Longji shares of performance is also very bright. In 2019, the company's operating income, net profit attributable to the parent and non-net profit withheld were 32.9 billion yuan, 5.28 billion yuan and 5.09 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 49.6%, 106.4% and 117.4% respectively.In the first three quarters of this year, the income, net profit attributed to the mother and net profit attributed to the mother after deduction were 33.832 billion yuan, 6.357 billion yuan and 6.014 billion yuan, respectively, up 49.08%, 82.44% and 76.35% year-on-year. In addition, Longji shares management is recognized by the industry, a well-known investor on Longji shares evaluation is: rarely in history to see a mainstream product has been formed and replaced by the situation, but Longji shares dry (monocrystalline silicon instead of polycrystalline silicon become the mainstream product);In history, there are few enterprises that have formed an industrial cluster and can do things outside the industrial cluster (Xi 'an outside Jiangsu and Zhejiang), but Longji shares have also done.



2.Driven by the trend of environmental protection and global policies, carbon neutrality has become a global consensus, and the growth of the photovoltaic industry has been highlighted, ushered in an accelerated upward phase. On December 22, the fourth quarter meeting of China's "Power Roundtable" was held, and the goal of adding 120GW of installed power in 2021 was put forward. Moreover, the National Energy Work Conference in 2021 also pointed out that the consumption and storage capacity of new energy should be greatly enhanced in 2021, the construction of power grid should be further optimized and improved, and the construction of a new generation power system suitable for the development of high proportion, large scale and renewable energy should be accelerated. The domestic installed capacity target has been climbing since it set a target of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and being carbon neutral by 2060. According to the data of China Electricity Union, since September 2020, the domestic monthly installed capacity has accelerated, the year-on-year growth rate has more than doubled, and there is a high probability of installation in December. Looking forward to the 14th Five-Year Plan, it is expected that the domestic average annual installed capacity will increase by nearly one time and continue to dominate the global PV installed capacity ranking. In the future, it will be an irreversible trend for green energy to replace fossil energy, and photovoltaic plays an irreplaceable role in this energy revolution. Before that, Li Zhenguo, president of Longji Group, shared in an annual strategy meeting of the fund: in the energy outlook of the government and large enterprises, photovoltaic is listed as the most important energy source in the world in the future; In most countries and regions of the world, PV has become the cheapest and most cost-effective energy for investment. Renewable energy, represented by photovoltaic, is expected to achieve energy independence and autonomy of all countries in the world, thus eliminating international disputes caused by energy shortage and realizing the pattern of global peace. These factors determine the bright prospect of photovoltaic industry. Recently, Ren Yuzhi, director of the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, estimated that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic power may reach about 35GW this year, and the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power will reach 240 million kilowatts by the end of the year. By the end of the year, the scale of photovoltaic power will surpass wind power and become the third largest power source in China.

At present, more and more long-term capital has gradually entered the leading photovoltaic enterprises, which also shows the long-term value of the industry. In the past, because the photovoltaic industry has a strong cyclical, if the parity of access to the Internet, subsidies exit as a sign of maturity, this growth road, the photovoltaic industry is more than 10 years.

Because of the volatility of the industry and the long growth cycle, there are not many successful capital exits.However, the cyclicality of PV will gradually be worn out as more and more regions get affordable access to the Internet. Starting from 2021, new PV installations in China will be almost entirely affordable projects, and endogenous driving forces will become the core force for the development of the domestic market, said the research report by Kaixin Securities. The reduction of electricity cost makes photovoltaic power generation economical, highlights its industrial value, and strengthens its role in replacing petrochemical energy. The analysts also said that in terms of corporate targets, long-term optimistic about competitive enterprises, such as Longji shares, Tongwei shares, etc.; In the medium term, it is optimistic about the technological change through the cycle, such as the cost optimization brought by the upsizing of products, heterojunction to improve the conversion efficiency of batteries, granular silicon, new application scenarios, etc.In the short term, 2021 is the stage of the revolution of the photovoltaic supply side, and the prosperity of silicon materials and glass is good.



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