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对几个热点问题谈谈隆基股份的看法

      对于210:硅片端尺寸不是问题,只要客户有稳定的需求, 隆基股份可以给予稳定的供应,但是210不在隆基测算的最佳尺寸范围,所以隆基目前不会主动地推这个产品,除非客户有稳定的需求,隆基就可以供应。210隆基测算的综合产量跟最佳区间(166区域)单位时间内晶棒的产量非常接近(按重量算)。隆基认为210单位面积的成本不会降低(这也印证了一点,中环说210硅片重点节省成本在电池片与组件端是没问题的,硅片端成本下降不代表全产业链成本和终端产品成本下降)。

    关于异质结:现在HIT热主要是概念炒作,虽然HIT效率高但是性价比还不是很好,PERC还有提升空间,设备投资差2.5倍,异质结投资8-9亿,PERC2.3亿,所以从性价比看,隆基不会去投。在电池衰减方面,信越有掺镓的专利,今年4月份到期,掺镓后,PERC的衰减会大幅降低,硼氧复合体与硼铁导致的衰减在掺镓后就不会那么严重。PERC掺镓后,HIT的衰减优势不会存在。HIT短期衰减要优于常规P型电池,有1%的优势;温度系数方面,相对于PERC有0.1%优势,但这是分地区的,高温地带比如热带地区,温度系数会有价值,10度1%的影响,20度2%,温带平均白天温度比25度高不了太多,所以影响没那么大。HIT最近10年技术进步是电池片技术进步里最慢的,跟10年前效率差不多;在成本削减上,装备投资比较大,成本回收比较难,折旧大,隆基认为这个会有比较大的削减空间;但是在透明导电膜与银浆方面相对来讲削减成本比较困难,现在透明导电膜都用金属铟,如果所有的都用铟问题会很大(可能意思是说会引起铟的价格暴涨)隆基认为,BIPV比现在所争论的电池类型、组件类型等都重要,因为客户是最重要的,前面的是企业竞争的关系,但是一旦走向BIPV这些都不是关键要素。
      关于BIPV:BIPV的投资收益可以在20-25年内把投资建设整栋房子的投入收回来。2020年是BIPV的起点。在中国是隆基的介入,在美国是特斯拉推出了第三代产品。对产业有足够的推动力。隆基现在首先做大公司工业园、物流等大客户,量大的头部客户,暂时还不会向居民推开。BIPV的壁垒是这是一种建材,所有建材都有的壁垒,就是跟屋顶的结合必须跟建筑商一起研究。现在隆基已经做了很多IP的布局,更多的是外观与结构的知识产权保护。主要是客户认可问题。现在还没人做BIPV,隆基想做一个新的蓝海。大型物流公司、工业园非常有兴趣,积极跟公司反馈需求。先进的科技公司大数据公司、做物流的,海外的一些公司如苹果、谷歌 、FACEBOOK等都宣布要100%使用可再生能源,所以国内这些公司也向这些方向靠拢,在工厂设计时就考虑进去。
       光伏过去整个市场规模是增长的,这两年光伏在能源投资占比里达到40%,是非常高的比例。价格不是光伏发展最重要的障碍,价格是企业与企业之间竞争的手段,而不是拉动需求的手段了。拉动需求最重要的是让更多的人理解与了解光伏的价值,现在很多传统能源企业进入光伏产业,比如大的石油公司,煤电公司等。这样自然市场会扩张。还有光伏场景发掘,比如农村的分布式加储能加柴油备用,可以降低成本。这也是公司介入BIPV(光伏建材)的原因所在。过去大家一直都在关注隆基的制造能力,隆基做得还说的过去,但是企业单靠制造,只能赚薄利,除非行业一直保持增长,产能建设速度一直没有跟上增长速度,那还可以获得更高利润,否则单纯靠制造,那只能获取制造该有的利润,不会更多。
隆基认为一定要从客户那找价值,比制造更多的价值,制造只是基本功。

     关于业绩目标:2020年前6个月的产能订出去8成,116占7成。隆基现在M2产能只满足原来的订单,其他产能全部转为166,没接的单也是166,现在隆基限制M2产能,M2只接已经接的单,新接的M2单只从外面买电池。现在剩的M2规格产能是因为欧洲与美国客户的一些长单,满足这些长单的产能。
现在1季度订单接满,2季度8成。未来收入有目标,利润没目标,收入目标到2024年做到100亿收入。隆基有能力拿到30%的市场。今年隆基电池片产能还会按照之前的产能指引来完成,明后年指引,董事会还没讨论。今年组件产能与指引的25-30GW差异不会很大。电池片到年底加上海外不到20GW。
什么是bivp太阳能建筑一体化
所谓太阳能与建筑一体化是将太阳能利用设施与建筑有机结合,利用太阳能集热器替代屋顶覆盖层或替代屋顶保温层,既消除了太阳能对建筑物形象的影响,又避免了重复投资,降低了成本。太阳能与建筑一体化是未来太阳能技术发展的方向。由于太阳能热力系统的发展与建筑紧密相连,需有建筑业的大力支持与配合。在市场经济条件下不能完全依靠行政手段来强行推广,我们必须通过努力,研发设计出令建筑商能主动接受和配合的太阳能热力系统,或与建筑相结合的技术解决方案,让太阳能热力系统成为建筑不可分割的一部分,以满足与建筑相结合的需要。
太阳能与建筑一体化技术的特点
1. 把太阳能的利用纳入环境的总体设计,把建筑、技术和美学融为一体,太阳能设施成为建筑的一部分,相互间有机结合,取代了传统太阳能的结构所造成的对建筑的外观形象的影响;2. 利用太阳能设施完全取代或部分取代屋顶覆盖层,可减少成本,提高效益;3. 可用于平屋顶或斜屋顶,一般对平屋顶而言用覆盖式,对斜屋顶用镶嵌式;4.太阳能热水器完全纳入建筑部品体系,成为建筑体系不可分割的一部分,与建筑同步设计、同步施工、同步后期物业管理。


For 210: the end size of the silicon wafer is not a problem. As long as the customer has stable demand, Longi Stock can provide stable supply. However, 210 is not within the optimal size range calculated by Longi, so Longi will not actively promote this product at present. The combined yield measured by 210 rods is very close to the rod yield per unit time (by weight) in the optimal interval (zone 166).Longji believes that the cost of 210 unit area will not be reduced (this also confirms that CMC said that 210 silicon wafer focus on cost saving is no problem in the battery and component end, the silicon wafer end cost reduction does not mean the cost of the whole industry chain and the end product decline).

About heterojunction: now HIT heat is mainly concept hype, although HIT efficiency is high but the cost performance is not very good, PERC still have room for improvement, equipment investment difference 2.5 times, heterojunction investment 800-900 million, perc230 million, so from the cost performance, long will not go to cast. In terms of battery attenuation, the letter more gallium doped patent, expired in April this year, after doping gallium, PERC attenuation will be significantly reduced, boron oxygen complex and boron iron caused by attenuation in gallium doped will not be so serious.Perc doped with gallium, HIT attenuation advantage does not exist.Short-term attenuation of HIT is better than that of conventional P-type batteries, with a 1% advantage. In terms of temperature coefficient, it has a 0.1% advantage over PERC, but it is regional. In hot regions such as the tropics, the temperature coefficient will be valuable. It has a 1% effect at 10 degrees, 2% at 20 degrees, and the average daytime temperature in temperate regions is not much higher than 25 degrees, so the effect is not that big.HIT has made the slowest progress in battery technology in the last 10 years, and is about as efficient as it was 10 years ago. In terms of cost reduction, equipment investment is relatively large, cost recovery is difficult, and depreciation is large. Longji believes that there will be relatively large space for reduction. But in transparent conductive film and silver slurry cut costs relatively difficult, transparent conductive film are now using metal indium, if all of them are using indium will be a big problem (may mean causes indium prices) longji think, BIPV than now debate the battery type, such as component type is important, because the customer is the most important, is the enterprise competition in front of relationship, but once toward the BIPV these are not key factors.

About BIPV: The investment income of BIPV can pay for the investment of building the whole house in 20-25 years.The year 2020 is the starting point for BIPV. In China it was Longi's intervention, in the US it was Tesla's launch of the third generation product.There is enough impetus to the industry. Longji is now the first to expand the company's industrial park, logistics and other big customers, a large number of head customers, temporarily will not be pushed to the residents. The barrier to BIPV is that this is a building material, the barrier that all building materials have, is that the integration with the roof has to be studied with the builder. Now Longi has done a lot of IP layout, more is the appearance and structure of intellectual property protection. The main problem is customer approval. No one is doing BIPV yet, and Longi wants to do a new Blue Ocean.Large logistics companies and industrial parks were very interested and actively fed back their demands with the company. Advanced technology companies, big data companies, logistics companies, overseas companies such as Apple, Google, Facebook, etc., have announced that they will use 100% renewable energy, so these domestic companies are also moving in these directions, taking into account the design of their factories.




In the past, the size of the PV market was growing. In the past two years, PV accounted for 40% of the energy investment, which is a very high proportion. Price is not the most important obstacle to photovoltaic development. Price is a means of competition between enterprises, rather than a means of driving demand. The most important thing to drive demand is to let more people understand and understand the value of photovoltaic. Now many traditional energy enterprises enter the photovoltaic industry, such as large oil companies, coal power companies and so on. So the natural market will expand.There are also photovoltaic scenarios, such as distributed energy storage and diesel back-up in rural areas, to reduce costs. This is why the company is involved in BIPV (photovoltaic building materials).In the past we have been focused on longji manufacturing capability, longji done also said in the past, but the enterprise alone, can only make small profits, unless the industry has maintained growth, speed the construction of a productivity has not keep up with growth, it can also get higher profits, or simply by making, the only access to make the profit, not more.

Longi believes that we must find value from customers, more than manufacturing value, manufacturing is just the basic skills.

About the performance target: 80% of the production capacity in the first six months of 2020 is set, and 116 accounts for 70%.Longji's M2 production capacity can only meet the original order, and all other production capacity is changed to 166, and the orders that have not been received are also 166. Now Longji limits the M2 production capacity, and M2 only receives the orders that have been received, and the newly received M2 orders can only be purchased from outside. The remaining M2 capacity is due to some long orders from customers in Europe and America, which can meet the capacity of these long orders.

Now 1 quarter orders are full, 2 quarter 80%.Future revenue is targeted, profits are not. Revenue is targeted to reach $10 billion by 2024. Longi has the ability to capture 30% of the market.This year, Longi's battery production capacity will be completed according to the previous production capacity guidance. The board of directors has not discussed the guidance for the next year or two. This year's component capacity will not differ significantly from the 25-30GW guidance.Battery pieces by the end of the year plus less than 20GW overseas.

What is BIVP Solar Building Integration

The so-called integration of solar energy and architecture is the organic combination of solar energy utilization facilities and buildings. The solar collector is used to replace the roof cover or the roof insulation layer, which not only eliminates the impact of solar energy on the building image, but also avoids repeated investment and reduces the cost. The integration of solar energy and architecture is the development direction of solar energy technology in the future.As the development of solar thermal system is closely connected with buildings, it needs the strong support and cooperation of the construction industry. Under the condition of market economy cannot completely rely on administrative means to force the promotion, we must through the efforts, research and development design make the builders can take the initiative to accept and cooperate with the solar thermal system, or combined with construction technology solutions, make solar thermal system has become an integral part of the buildings, to meet the needs of the combined with construction.

Characteristics of solar energy and building integration technology

1. Integrating the use of solar energy into the overall design of the environment, integrating architecture, technology and aesthetics, solar facilities become a part of the building and combine organically with each other, replacing the influence of the traditional solar structure on the appearance of the building; 2. Using solar energy facilities to completely or partially replace the roof cover, which can reduce costs and improve benefits;3 can be used for flat roof or inclined roof, generally for flat roof with cover type, inclined roof with Mosaic type; 4. The solar water heater is fully incorporated into the building components system and becomes an inseparable part of the building system. It is synchronized with the building design, construction and late property management.


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