11 月 8 日，人民银行宣布通过推出碳减排支持工具，向金融机构提供低成本资金，引导金融机构在自主决策、自担风险的前提下，向碳减排重点领域内的各类企业一视同仁提供碳减排贷款，贷款利率与同期限档次贷款市场报价利率（LPR）大致持平。
1. Overall scale
Due to this year's actual installed capacity is less than expected (originally expected to be 55-65GW), and the dual carbon target task is still relatively heavy, which makes the photovoltaic industry generally optimistic about the new installed capacity next year. China's new pv installations in 2022 are likely to be more than 75GW, industry insiders said.
And soowu Securities recently released a research report is more optimistic, in the first quarter of 2022, silicon is expected to release 160,000 tons of capacity, the price reduction will greatly stimulate demand, is expected to be the first quarter of the off-season is not weak, the subsequent quarter to improve. Industry chain price reduction to accelerate the ground power station, the county to promote + electricity prices to stimulate
the explosive growth of distributed photovoltaic, Dongwu Securities is expected to 2022 domestic market demand or up to 80GW+, with an increase of 60% +, in which the proportion of distributed photovoltaic up to 50% +.
2. Favorable policies
At present, although there is no new policy, but there is a direction, next year's industry development of the stimulus effect is very obvious.
On November 8, the People's Bank of China announced by introducing carbon reduction support tools, provide low-cost capital to financial institutions, encourage financial institutions under the premise of independent decision-making, at their own risk, equally to carbon reduction focus in the field of all kinds of enterprises to provide loans to reduce emissions, loan interest rate and term loan market quotation rate with roughly equal (LPR).
It is estimated that this will reduce the cost of photovoltaic installation enterprises by 0.5%, greatly easing the current tight capital cost situation.
3. Industrial chain changes
Market participants have the following expectations for changes in all links of the industrial chain:
(1) Silicon material price reduction
(2) Component price increase
(3) Continued support from national industrial policies
(4) Global cooperation on clean energy
(5) The county continues to promote and promote distributed photovoltaic construction
Of the five items above, the first four are relatively easy to predict based on the continuity of industry trends in 2021.
No. 5 is something to chew on. There's a
twist to this. On June 20, 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Submitting the Pilot Scheme
of Rooftop Distributed PHOTOVOLTAIC Development for the Whole County (city, district)", which carried out the pilot installation of distributed photovoltaic on the roofs of buildings with the conditions. Subsequently, the climax of the pilot was set
off in succession across the country.
Also appeared some problems in the pilot, however, a few days ago, said the economic journal articles, "advance the photovoltaic roof headlong mass action of avoid by all means" : photovoltaic roof, wide distribution, site management difficult, difficult operations, need good service, fast reaction of enterprises, large enterprises capital, strong technical strength, has the advantage of large enterprises, but also have high management cost. For private smes, although they are not as good as large enterprises in some aspects, they also have their own comparative advantages.
Therefore, full competition among various enterprises helps to form a relationship of complementary symbiosis and harmonious development.
According to this report, in the process of pilot promotion in 2021, there are some "great Hulong-style" reckless problems, unscientific progress and market exclusiveness in some places. But whatever the controversy, it at least shows that the prospects for distributed pv are getting better.
According to the requirements of the National Energy Administration, photovoltaic development should adhere to a number of parallel, including the persistence of centralized and distributed parallel. Under the promotion of the policy, distributed photovoltaic has entered the stage of large-scale development, the proportion
of centralized photovoltaic and distributed photovoltaic installed gradually tends to balance, is expected to maintain a good trend of development during the "14th Five-Year plan".
In the case of the whole county to promote distributed pv, it is very likely to remain the most important way in 2022.
4. Other things to watch
Analysis of the industry, ultimately to fall on the value of investment decisions. How
do professional bodies interpret the changes in pv industry in 2022? Guosen Securities published its views on future
prediction in a recent research report, which can be used as a reference:
(1) Major logical change of photovoltaic plate investment in the era of parity -- switch from marginal capacity cost pricing to marginal demand cost bearing pricing:
(2) The capacity of silicon material in bottleneck link will be fixed and installed in 2022, and it is estimated that the global installed capacity will be more than 230GW:
Silicon material high boom continued, cell marginal repair, pay attention to the long-term pattern of components;
(3) Inverters and auxiliary materials are sure to benefit more, focusing on pattern and profit margin improvement:
(4) N-type entering the first year of mass production, breeding new opportunities for equipment:
(5) Large base on the power generation side + high elasticity on the user side, energy storage will definitely increase in 2022:
Guosen securities believes that the valuation ways, although plate has risen for three years, but in the growth of the industry scale, concentration increase drive growth, as corporate earnings growth in 2022 to cash and leading edge gradually validation, plate still has larger probability of the overall valuation opportunity, leading more is expected to gradually enjoys a premium valuation.