我国将2030年非化石能源占比目标提升至25%（此前2030年非化石能源占比目标为20%）。2019年我国非化石能源占 比已经达到了15.3%，预计2020年可以提升至16%；在此基础上2030年非化石能源占比目标达到25%，平均每年提升幅 度为0.9pct。考虑水电、核电的资源储备、建设周期及地理限制条件后，我们认为2030年的光伏、风电累计装机合理区间应该在 1800-2000GW左右，即未来十年风电+光伏年均装机规模达到130GW-150GW区间，其中十四五期间的合理年均新增装 机规模为108-124GW，十五五期间的合理年均装机规模为155-178GW。十三五期间这一数值为55GW左右。
光伏发电系统包括光伏组件、逆变器、光伏支架等核心设备及 其他配件。光伏支架作为电站的“骨骼” ，其性能直接影响光 伏电站的发电效率及投资收益。光伏支架上游为铝合金，钢材 以及其他非金属原材料，中游为光伏支架的设计和生产，下游 是光伏支架的运用即光伏电站。
01 Grasp the opportunity of optical storage certainty
1.1 Global photovoltaic installations continue to move forward
According to data from the International Energy Agency, by the end of 2020, the global cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity was 760.4GW. Twenty countries added more than 1GW of PV capacity. Among
them, China, the European Union and the United States ranked the top three in the world with 48.2GW, 19.6GW and 19.2GW respectively.
"Photovoltaic + energy storage" has become the standard configuration of photovoltaic development in many countries, and energy storage will bring long-term sustainable development power for photovoltaic. It is expected that 370GW of photovoltaic installed capacity will be added globally in 2025, among which 127GW of photovoltaic installed capacity will be added in China. Energy storage inverter superimposed the function of energy storage power station on the basis of photovoltaic grid-connected
inverter, so that the surplus electricity generated during the day can be stored in the battery, and then released through the battery at night, solving the drawbacks of photovoltaic power generation cannot be regulated.
1.2 During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, it is estimated that 76-86GW will be newly installed annually in China
The country has raised its non-fossil energy share target to 25% by 2030, up from 20% previously. In
2019, the share of non-fossil energy in China reached 15.3 percent, and is expected to increase to 16 percent in 2020. On
this basis, the proportion of non-fossil energy in 2030 will reach 25%, with an average annual increase of 0.9 PCT. After
considering the resource reserve, construction cycle and geographical constraints of hydropower and nuclear power, we believe that the reasonable range of cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power in 2030 should be about 1800-2000GW,
that is, the average annual installed capacity of wind power and PV in the next ten years should reach 130GW-150GW. Among
them, the reasonable average annual new installation scale during the 14th Five-Year plan is 108-124GW, and the reasonable average annual installation scale during the 15th five-year plan is 155-178GW. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, this value is about 55GW.
1.3 Two fundamental drives of energy storage → Seven scenarios
The essential drive of energy storage comes from the flexible resources required by the new power system and the low cost and high quality power demand of the user side, which can be divided into seven scenarios (intersecting each other) of the generation side, the grid side and the user side.
Generation side: to smooth the fluctuation of power generation, maintain the balance of power grid, and mainly use new energy to support energy storage.
On the power grid side, auxiliary services such as peak regulation and frequency modulation are mainly used to maintain the balance demand of the power grid, and the demand for delaying the investment of the power grid is also delayed.
User side: Domestic energy storage is mainly industrial and commercial energy storage, while overseas energy storage includes household energy storage and industrial and commercial energy storage.
1.4 The global installed capacity is expected to reach 196GWh in 2025
Installed capacity forecast: In 2021, the global installed capacity of new electrochemical energy storage is 9.69GW, with a year-on-year growth of 100%, and in 2025, the new capacity can reach 74.77GW.
Driving factors: In 2020, China is mainly driven by the new energy power generation side and the power grid side, and the industrial and commercial users are slightly delayed in the short term but safe in the long term due to the impact of recent fire accidents. Both large projects and user-side energy storage in the U.S. are already market-driven and are expected to more than double in
2021. Europe, Australia, Japan, South Africa, South America and other places are maintaining a rapid growth of home
Yihua Shares: photovoltaic bracket rookie, automotive connector into the harvest period
2.1 Since its establishment, the company has continuously expanded and segmented areas horizontally and upgraded product structure vertically
Since its establishment in 1995, Yihua has expanded from communication connectors, consumer electronics and machines to automotive connectors and photovoltaic supports through endogenous growth and extension acquisition.
2.2 The company's products mainly include connectors and photovoltaic supports
The main products of Yihua are connectors and photovoltaic tracking brackets; Among
them, connectors include communication connectors, consumer electronics connectors, automotive connectors, and so on. The main products of optical volt bracket are structural systems (rotatable bracket).
2.3 Photovoltaic tracking support is one of the components of photovoltaic power generation system
Photovoltaic power generation system includes photovoltaic module, inverter, photovoltaic support and other core equipment and other accessories. As the "skeleton" of power station, the performance of photovoltaic scaffold directly affects the power generation efficiency and investment income of
photovoltaic power station. The upstream of the PV bracket is aluminum alloy, steel and other non-metallic raw materials,
the middle reaches is the design and production of the PV bracket, and the downstream is the application of the PV bracket, namely the PV power station.
2.4 Automotive connector business has entered the strategic harvest period and become a new driver of performance
The company automobile connector early development investment gradually complete, business has begun to enter the harvest period. The early company's automotive connector business losses, mainly due to the initial investment in the construction of larger spending.
In the first half of 2021, Suzhou Eno's revenue was 33 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109.8%, and its net profit
was 720,000 yuan, gradually turning a loss into a profit (a loss of 6 million yuan in the same period last year).
Products: The company's automotive connector business covers new energy vehicles and ASDS autonomous driving plate, the current products include vehicle high-speed connector HSD series, BMS new energy connector, body ECU/VCU, automotive glass lift connector, etc.
Customers: The company has obtained more than 200 million yuan of projects from BYD, Geely, GKN, Huawei, Dongfeng, CRRC, Ambofu and other big customers, and is gradually increasing the volume, and has won a good reputation from customers. The future automotive connector business is expected to continue to benefit from the downstream customer order volume, scale
effect significantly enhanced.