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凛冬将至:能源危机令北欧进入“战时状态”
今年以来,欧洲电价和天然气价格持续上涨。一轮接一轮的欧盟对俄制裁措施不断发酵,“反噬”的担忧情绪推动着能源价格不断飙升。根据欧洲能源交易所数据,近期多个波罗的海沿岸国家明年交付的电价水平突破历史记录,最高达到前一年同期价格的 12倍。
芬兰总理桑娜·马林日前对媒体表示,当前的能源危机前所未有,这迫使芬兰进入“战时经济”状况。
近日,芬兰输电网络运营商FINGRID警告说,电力市场充满不确定性,芬兰人应为即将到来的冬季可能出现的电力短缺和停电做好准备。
赫尔辛基市将于9月底组织一场停电演习,以测试政府和企业在重大配电中断期间的合作,预期数日至一周。
国防部提示国民,大规模停电将立即导致公共交通工具、银行、加油站和商店关闭,2-6小时后,电话和互联网将无法连接,18-36小时后,室内温度将快速下降。
近几个月以来,芬兰电价波动幅度巨大,无论长短期合同,大多数家庭的电费支出增加数倍。9月8日,统计局专家维尔夫·鲁海宁表示,根据现有数据评估,急剧上涨的电价造成大约10万户芬兰家庭的支付困难。
经济事务部长米卡·林蒂莱对媒体称,“我们正在谈论今冬增加的数千欧元电费,即便是中产家庭,到了冬天也将颇为难熬。”9月10日,林蒂莱说,“一股冷风吹来”,需要尽快采取措施稳定电力市场,节电和实施价格上限是最好的应急手段。
中央商会首席经济学家尤卡·阿佩尔奎斯特对记者表示,能源成本价格大幅飙升还导致食品价格持续上涨,未来的经济前景异常黯淡。
9月7日,芬兰独立宏观经济咨询公司GnS Economics首席执行官兼首席经济学家托马斯·马林撰文称,欧洲的情况比许多人了解的要糟糕得多,由于战争和制裁等原因导致的能源危机及欧元贬值等情况的恶化速度非常快,欧洲银行业处于危机边缘,欧洲经济处于崩溃边缘,欧洲人可能只有几周最多几个月时间来采取预防措施。
根据芬兰财政部最新提交的2023年财政预算计划,政府将通过降低电力增值税、为有孩子家庭提供可自由支配补贴等一揽子支持,帮助芬兰民众渡过困境。
9月初,芬兰政府还公布了主题为“降低一度”的全国节能运动计划,而上一次类似运动是在20世纪的70年代石油危机时期。
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9月8日,丹麦政府宣布了应对能源危机的三项措施,包括向丹麦电力公司提供1000亿丹麦克朗的国家担保,要求公共建筑场合的温度控制在19摄氏度,呼吁丹麦人节省能源。
为帮助受能源危机冲击影响较大的家庭,此前丹麦政府已向40多万户主要使用天然气和电热取暖系统的低收入家庭补贴6000丹麦克朗,总计达到24亿丹麦克朗。
瑞典绿党发言人批评现政府称,在能源价格高昂的情况下,很震惊政府不准备为此多做努力,这是对需要可承受能源的民众的背叛。 根据报告,瑞典被认为是在波罗的海周边国家中开发海上风电最具潜力的国家,但在瑞典政府承诺的海上风能扩容计划仅从目前的0.2吉瓦提高到0.7吉瓦,于当下的能源危机而言,无异于杯水车薪。
9月8日,瑞典电网宣布,为缓解南部非常紧张的电力供应,公司已向政府提交大规模开发海上风电的申请,强烈希望政府尽快批准。
几十年来,核能一直是瑞典电力供应的主要支柱。2016年瑞典议会通过了到2040年实现100%可再生能源发电的发展计划,明确将核电排除在外。当下这场能源危机将促使瑞典各党派考虑是否需要更多的能源选择。
瑞典于9月11日举行的新一届议会选举竞争很激烈,最终右翼政党组成的反对党阵营以微弱优势获得多数选票支持,支持现任政府的党派阵营在选举中失利。瑞典首相安德松14日承认议会选举失利并宣布辞职。
瑞典能源发展路径未来如何调整?这一横亘在人们心头的问题,将随着凛冬将至而愈发显得迫切。

Electricity and gas prices have continued to rise in Europe this year.  One after another round of EU sanctions against Russia continue to ferment, the "backlash" of the fear of driving energy prices soaring.  Several Baltic states have recently hit record levels of electricity prices for next year, reaching as much as 12 times the price of the same period a year ago, according to the European Energy Exchange.  

The unprecedented energy crisis is forcing Finland into a "war economy", Prime Minister Sana Marin told the media.  

Finns should prepare for possible power shortages and blackouts in the coming winter amid uncertainty in the electricity market, Finnish transmission network operator FINGRID warned.  

The city of Helsinki is organising a power outage exercise at the end of September to test government and business co-operation during major power distribution disruptions, expected to last from a few days to a week.  

The ministry warned the nation that a massive power outage would immediately lead to the closure of public transport, banks, gas stations and shops, telephone and Internet connections would be unavailable after 2-6 hours, and indoor temperatures would drop rapidly after 18-36 hours.  

Electricity prices in Finland have fluctuated wildly in recent months, with most households paying several times as much for their electricity, regardless of long-term or short-term contracts.   On September 8th Wilf Ruhenen, an expert at the statistics office, said that, based on available data, sharply rising electricity prices had caused payment difficulties for about 100,000 Finnish households.  

"We are talking about thousands of euros more in electricity bills this winter, which will be difficult even for middle class families," Economic Affairs Minister Mika Linthile told the press.   On September 10th Mr Lintier said that "a cold wind is blowing" and that measures needed to be taken quickly to stabilise the electricity market, with saving electricity and imposing price caps as the best contingency measures.  

Yucca Appelquist, chief economist of the Central Chamber of Commerce, told reporters that the economic outlook for the future is particularly bleak as food prices continue to rise due to the sharp rise in energy costs.  

On September 7, Finland independent macroeconomic advisers GnS Economics, chief executive and chief economist Thomas marin, said the situation in Europe are far worse than many people know, because of the war and sanctions and other causes lead to energy crisis and the deterioration of the euro, and so on and so forth very fast, European Banks on the verge of crisis,   With the European economy on the brink of collapse, Europeans may have only weeks, if not months, to take precautions.  

According to the finance Ministry's latest budget plan for 2023, the government will help Finns through a package of support, including a reduction in VAT on electricity and a discretionary subsidy for families with children.  

In early September, the Finnish government announced plans for a national energy conservation campaign under the theme of "one degree reduction," the last such campaign was during the oil shocks of the 1970s.  

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On September 8, the Danish government announced three measures to deal with the energy crisis, including a DKR 100 billion state guarantee for Danish power companies, a requirement that public buildings be kept at 19 degrees Celsius and a call for Danes to save energy.  

To help households most affected by the energy crisis, the Danish government has already subsidized more than 400,000 low-income households, who mainly use gas and electric heating systems, by DKR 6,000, amounting to DKR 2.4 billion.  

A spokesman for Sweden's Green Party criticized the government, saying it was shocked that it was not prepared to do more when energy prices were high. It was a betrayal of people who needed affordable energy.   According to the report, Sweden is considered the country with the greatest potential for offshore wind power in the Baltic countries, but the government's commitment to increase its offshore wind capacity from the current 0.2 gigawatts to 0.7 gigawatts is a drop in the ocean given the current energy crisis.  

Sweden's power grid announced on September 8th that it had submitted an application for large-scale offshore wind development to the government to ease the tight power supply in the south, and was keen to get approval soon.  

Nuclear power has been the mainstay of Sweden's electricity supply for decades.  In 2016, the Swedish parliament passed a development plan to achieve 100 percent renewable energy generation by 2040, explicitly excluding nuclear power.  The current energy crisis will prompt Sweden's political parties to consider whether more energy options are needed.  

Sweden held a closely fought election for a new parliament on September 11, ending with a narrow majority for the opposition bloc of right-wing parties and a defeat for the bloc supporting the incumbent government.   Swedish Prime Minister Anders Andersson conceded defeat in parliamentary elections and announced his resignation Wednesday.  

How to adjust Sweden's energy development path in the future?  It is a question that will become more pressing as winter approaches. 


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