伏产业已开始为我国能源转型作贡献

记者：2017年光伏发电新增装机达到5306万千瓦，实现了超预期发展。您如何看待这一成就？

李俊峰：2017年我国光伏发电新增装机达到了5306万千瓦，的确令人振奋，可喜可贺。整体来说，光伏产业通过十几年的发展，在规模上、技术上、成本上、民生意义上均获得了很大的成绩，已经开始为我国能源转型作出贡献。

首先，产业实现了规模化发展。回想2012年，受国外反倾销挤压，国内光伏行业哀鸿遍野，一批企业破产。为了扶持、挽救光伏产业，党中央、国务院及时作出决策，适时开启了国内光伏市场，并出台了光伏发电的固定上网电价制度。多方努力下，光伏产业规模迅速扩大，“十五”期间国家制定的光伏发电发展的目标是2020年装机容量达到200万千瓦，“十三五”把这一目标提高到1.1亿千瓦。从目前来看，在实际的执行过程中，光伏发电已然交出了可喜的答卷，2016年新增发电装机突破了3000万千瓦，2017年新增发电装机突破了5000万千瓦，成为新增发电装机最多的发电电源，提前三年实现了“十三五”的规划目标。

其次，光伏发电的显现度有了明显提高。2017年底光伏发电量突破了1100亿千瓦时，占当年全社会发电量的1.7%，新增发电量超过了600亿千瓦时，占当年新增发电量的15%，成为举足轻重的新增电源。曾几何时，我国的光伏产品“两头在外”，主要依靠国外市场。而现在，超过50%的市场在国内，光伏开始为自己国家的能源转型作出贡献。

第三，技术不断进步，成本大幅度下降。2012年，光伏组件的光电转换效率平均为14%~15%，到2017年已经接近19%~20%，平均每年几乎提高1个百分点，这种进步在光伏发展史上是史无前例的。2012年，光伏发电度电成本最高可达到1元/千瓦时，到2017年变成0.6元/千瓦时，平均每年下降0.08元/千瓦时。不仅如此，通过实施光伏领跑者计划，光伏发电的成本进一步下降，目前最新招标的项目最低可以降到0.4元/千瓦时。技术快速进步，为光伏发电下一步的成本下降奠定了基础。现在业界期待，到2020年，能够实现在用户侧平价上网。到2023年，最迟2025年，可以实现发电侧平价上网。这意味着，再用3~5年时间，光伏发电发展就可以不再依靠补贴。

第四，民生意义显著。通过发展光伏发电，成功促进了东西部地区融合发展。目前，甘肃、新疆、内蒙古等西部地区的光伏产能占全国产能的一半以上。一批优秀的光伏企业在西部崛起，成为支撑当地经济发展的龙头企业。光伏产业规模壮大，扩大了社会就业。2012年，光伏就业人口不足50万人，现在已经扩大到200万人，提高了3倍多。通过实施光伏扶贫工程，已为150万农户提供精准扶贫服务，每年为每户增收3000元以上，相当于每年提供了45亿元的扶贫资金，成为各地精准扶贫的重要措施之一。

第五，从政治意义上讲，光伏已成为我国在国际交往中的一张亮丽名片。 不仅服务于国内能源转型，对全球应对气候变化、能源转型也作出了贡献。

从能源转型角度，光伏规模离目标还很远

记者：2017年光伏发电实现了超预期发展，我们也听到一些不同的声音，认为光伏发电太快了，应该控制一下节奏，您如何看待这些问题？

李俊峰：回答光伏发电装机规模多与少、快与慢的问题，不能局限于光伏发电数字本身，还要从能源转型的大局来看。仅仅从光伏发电装机的增量上看，光伏发电装机一年新增5306万千瓦，与往年比，确实增长了很多。但从总量上看，光伏发电自2000年至今，已发展了17年。17年间，光伏累计仅仅实现了年发电量1100亿千瓦时，而2017年我国全口径发电量为64179亿千瓦时，光伏发电量的占比仅为1.7%，比重仍较小。

另外，从能源转型发展的角度看，我国已确定了到2020年和2030年非化石能源占一次能源消费比重分别达到15％和20％的发展目标，国家2030年能源消费和生产革命的目标是，非化石能源的占比要达到50%以上，2050年要达到75%，乃至80%以上，而现在光伏发电装机只有1.3亿千瓦，无论是其清洁能源占比，还是光伏装机规模，离规划目标还有很大的距离。

那么，如何扩大清洁能源的比例？有两个途径：一是发展可再生能源，二是扩大天然气供应。两者相较，扩大天然气供应容易受资源限制、技术制约和成本不确定制约。而光伏的优势是资源不受限制，随着技术进步，成本也在不断下降。因此，从长远看，光伏发电是很值得期待的清洁能源，应进一步加快发展速度。

从能源转型角度，光伏规模离目标还很远

记者：您提到，光伏是很值得期待的能源。那么，光伏行业这17年的发展能否支撑这份期待？

李俊峰：光伏发电这些年来的发展的确出现了好的势头，特别是近两三年的发展，布局更加合理，发展更具理性。

首先，光伏发电开始了实质意义的分布式为主。2017年分布式光伏新增装机1944万千瓦，同比增长3.7倍。

其次，发展中心向东部亟需能源转型的地区转移。山东、江苏、浙江、河北等以煤为主的省份，已经成为光伏发电新增装机主战场，在东部地区出现了一些1000万千瓦的光伏发电大省。

三是出现了光伏发电与其他行业互补的发展新形势。譬如，“光伏+农业”“光伏+农户”“光伏+商场”“光伏+园区”“光伏+渔光”等“光伏+”已经成为许多地区发展转型的措施之一。

四是光伏发电资源无处不在，成本不断地下降。在可以预期的时间内，也就是在今后的3~5年成为具有竞争力的能源种类之一。

The Volt industry has begun to contribute to China's energy transformation  

Question: In 2017, the newly installed photovoltaic power capacity reached 53.06 million kW, exceeding expectations.  What do you think of this achievement?  

 

Li Junfeng: In 2017, China's newly installed photovoltaic power reached 5306 million kilowatts, which is indeed exciting, gratifying.  On the whole, photovoltaic industry through more than ten years of development, in scale, technology, cost and the meaning of people's livelihood has gained great achievements, has begun to contribute to our energy transformation.  

 

First, the industry has achieved large-scale development.  Back in 2012, by the foreign anti-dumping squeeze, the domestic photovoltaic industry was full of grief, a number of enterprises went bankrupt.  In order to support and save the photovoltaic industry, the Party Central Committee and The State Council made timely decisions, timely opened the domestic photovoltaic market, and introduced a fixed feed-in price system for photovoltaic power generation.   With the efforts of various parties, the scale of the photovoltaic industry has expanded rapidly. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the national photovoltaic power generation development goal is to achieve the installed capacity of 2 million kW in 2020, and the 13th Five-Year Plan period has raised this goal to 110 million kW. From the present point of view, in the actual implementation process, photovoltaic power generation has already delivered gratifying results. In 2016, the newly installed power generation exceeded 30 million kW, and in 2017, the newly installed power generation exceeded 50 million kW, becoming the most newly installed power generation power source, and achieving the "13th Five-Year Plan" planning target three years ahead of schedule.  

 

Secondly, the appearance of photovoltaic power generation has been significantly improved.  By the end of 2017, photovoltaic power generation exceeded 110 billion KWH, accounting for 1.7% of the total social power generation in that year, and the new power generation exceeded 60 billion KWH, accounting for 15% of the new power generation in that year, becoming a pivotal new power source.  Once upon a time, our photovoltaic products "at both ends", mainly relying on the foreign market.  And now, with more than 50 percent of the market domestically, PV is starting to contribute to its own country's energy transition.  

 

Third, technology continues to improve and costs have fallen dramatically.  In 2012, the average photovoltaic conversion efficiency of photovoltaic modules was 14%-15%, and in 2017, it was close to 19%-20%, with an average annual increase of almost 1 percentage point. This kind of progress is unprecedented in the history of photovoltaic development.  In 2012, the cost of PV per KWH could reach up to 1 yuan per KWH, and will become 0.6 yuan per KWH in 2017, decreasing by an average of 0.08 yuan per KWH per year.  Moreover, through the implementation of the photovoltaic leader program, the cost of photovoltaic power generation can be further reduced, and the latest tender project can be as low as 0.4 yuan/KWH.  Rapid technological progress has laid the foundation for the next step of cost reduction in photovoltaic power generation.  The industry is now looking forward to achieving affordable access to the Internet on the user side by 2020.  By 2023, or 2025 at the latest, parity on the generation side can be achieved.  This means that it will take another three to five years for photovoltaic development to be subsidy-free.  

 

Fourth, it is of great significance to people's livelihood.  Through the development of photovoltaic power generation, the integrated development of the eastern and western regions has been successfully promoted.  Currently, PV production capacity in western regions such as Gansu, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia accounts for more than half of the national production capacity.  A number of outstanding photovoltaic enterprises have risen in the west and become the leading enterprises supporting the local economic development.  The scale of the photovoltaic industry has expanded, increasing social employment.  In 2012, the number of employed PV workers was less than 500,000, but now it has more than tripled to 2 million.  Through the implementation of the PV poverty alleviation project, 1.5 million rural households have been provided with targeted poverty alleviation services, increasing the annual income of each household by more than 3,000 yuan, equivalent to providing poverty alleviation funds of 4.5 billion yuan every year, which has become one of the important measures for targeted poverty alleviation in various regions.  

 

Fifth, in a political sense, photovoltaic has become a beautiful business card of our country in the international communication.  It not only serves the domestic energy transition, but also contributes to the global response to climate change and energy transition.  

 

From the perspective of energy transition, PV scale is far from the target  

Reporter: In 2017, photovoltaic power generation achieved more than expected development. We also heard some different voices that photovoltaic power generation is too fast and we should control the pace. How do you view these problems?  

 

Li Junfeng: To answer the question of how much or how little or how fast or slow the installed scale of photovoltaic power generation is, we should not be limited to the photovoltaic power generation figure itself, but also look at the overall situation of energy transformation.   Just from the incremental installation of photovoltaic power generation, photovoltaic power generation installed in a year increased 53.06 million kW, compared with previous years, indeed increased a lot.  But from the gross point of view, photovoltaic power generation since 2000, has been developed for 17 years.  In the past 17 years, the cumulative annual electricity generation of photovoltaic only reached 110 billion KWH, while the full-caliber electricity generation of China in 2017 was 6417.9 billion KWH. The proportion of photovoltaic electricity generation was only 1.7%, which was still small.  

 

In addition, from the perspective of energy transformation and development, China has set the development goals of non-fossil energy accounting for 15% and 20% of primary energy consumption respectively by 2020 and 2030. The national energy consumption and production revolution target by 2030 is to make non-fossil energy account for more than 50% and 75% by 2050, respectively.   And now the installed photovoltaic power generation is only 130 million kW, whether it is the proportion of clean energy, or the installed scale of photovoltaic power, there is still a great distance from the planning target.  

 

So how do you increase the proportion of clean energy?  There are two ways: one is to develop renewable energy and the other is to expand the supply of natural gas.  In contrast, expanding natural gas supply is vulnerable to resource constraints, technical constraints and cost uncertainty.  The advantage of photovoltaic is that resources are not limited, and with technological progress, the cost is constantly falling.  Therefore, in the long run, photovoltaic power generation is a clean energy that is worth looking forward to and should be further accelerated.  

 

From the perspective of energy transition, PV scale is far from the target  

Reporter: You mentioned that photovoltaic is a promising energy source.  So, can the development of the photovoltaic industry in the past 17 years support this expectation?  

 

Li Junfeng: The development of photovoltaic power generation in recent years has indeed shown a good momentum, especially in the past two or three years. The layout is more reasonable and the development is more rational.  

 

First of all, photovoltaic power generation began to substantially distributed.  In 2017, the newly installed distributed photovoltaic capacity increased by 19.4 million kW, an increase of 3.7 times year-on-year.  

 

Second, the centre of development is shifting to areas in the east that need an energy transition.  Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hebei and other coal-based provinces have become the main battleground for newly installed photovoltaic power generation, and some large provinces with 10 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power generation have emerged in the eastern region.  

 

The third is the emergence of photovoltaic power generation and other industries complementary development of the new situation.  For example, "photovoltaic + agriculture", "photovoltaic + farmers", "photovoltaic + shopping malls", "photovoltaic + park", "photovoltaic + fishing light" and other "photovoltaic +" has become one of the measures for the development and transformation of many regions.  

 

Fourth, photovoltaic power generation resources are everywhere, and the cost is constantly falling.  In the foreseeable time, that is, in the next three to five years to become one of the competitive energy types.