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光伏储能爆发 谁将是下一个阳光电源

 当前光伏逆变器市场主流产品为组串式逆变器。根据中国光伏行业协会统计数据,从2016年开始,组串式逆变器占比逐渐提升,2018年,组串式占比超过集中式占比,2021年组串式占比接近70%,根据《中国光伏产业发展路线图2021》,未来组串式逆变器占比仍将持续提升。

图片

  而未来微型逆变器则有更大空间。

  在微型逆变器领域,当前的微逆行业现状与2010年前后的集中式逆变器的发展情况类似,空间上都处于规模化的开始,产品上中国厂商的产品性能与海外龙头企业已经不相上下,格局上都有海外厂商占据绝对领先位置,成本控制上国内企业大幅低于海外企业。

  我们仅考虑微逆行业中当前的参与者,禾迈股份很有可能走出一条当年阳光电源 300274 )走出的道路,超过海外企业,成为全球龙头。

  在储能变流器领域,从产品力上,国内企业与海外企业不相上下;从渠道上看,众多国内企业均有比较好的基础。德业股份、阳光电源、盛弘股份 300693 )、固德威等储能业务中重点布局的企业,未来几年的储能业务营收与利润将大幅增长。

上个时代 中国靠成本优势拿下全球市场

  2010年,全球光伏新增装机量迈入10GW大关,达到17.5GW,以2010年阳光电源的销售均价1.6元/W计算,当年全球逆变器市场空间已达280亿元,各企业开始进入逆变器行业;

  在此阶段,中国企业凭借着更低的人力成本与更低的物料价格,获得显著的成本优势。以2010年数据为例,阳光电源的成本为790元/KW,SMA的成本为1404元/KW,阳光电源的成本仅为SMA成本的56%。

  尽管SMA由于先期建立的口碑、一定的技术优势、以及主要销售市场为欧洲等因素,在售价上仍较大幅度高于阳光电源,但成本控制上的先天劣势已经在逐步显现。

  在此期间,中国企业全球市占率急速上升。

  根据Wood Mackenzie数据,阳光电源等七大国内企业,2012年全球市占率仅为6%,2013年提升为18%,2014年提升为31%。龙头企业中,华为、阳光电源全球市占率2014年均达到10%,标志着中国企业在全球逆变器市场中的崛起。



At present, the mainstream products in the photovoltaic inverter market are group and series inverters. According to the statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, since 2016, the proportion of cluster inverters has gradually increased. In 2018, the proportion of cluster inverters has exceeded the proportion of centralized inverters, and in 2021, the proportion of cluster inverters is close to 70%. According to the Development Roadmap of China Photovoltaic Industry 2021, the proportion of cluster inverters will continue to increase in the future.

The picture

In the future there will be more room for micro-inverters.

In the field of micro inverter, the current micro inverse industry present situation and the development of centralized inverter around 2010 similar, on the space at the beginning of the scale, product performance and the overseas Chinese manufacturers of products on the leading enterprises have equal pattern has overseas manufacturers occupy absolute leading position, substantially below the cost control in the domestic enterprises overseas enterprises.

We only consider the current players in the micro inverse industry, Hemai shares is likely to walk out of the path of the sun Power supply (300274), more than overseas enterprises, become a global leader.

In the field of energy storage converters, domestic enterprises are comparable with overseas enterprises in terms of product power. From the perspective of channels, many domestic enterprises have a relatively good foundation. In the next few years, the revenue and profit of energy storage business of key enterprises such as DYE Stock, Sunshine Power Supply, Shenghong Stock (300693) and Goodway will increase significantly.

In the last era, China won the global market by its cost advantage

In 2010, the global photovoltaic newly installed volume entered the 10GW mark, reaching 17.5GW, with the average sales price of sunshine power in 2010 of 1.6 yuan /W calculation, that year the global inverter market space has reached 28 billion yuan, each enterprise began to enter the inverter industry;

At this stage, Chinese enterprises obtain significant cost advantages by virtue of lower labor costs and lower material prices. Take 2010 data as an example, the cost of sunshine power supply is 790 yuan /KW, the cost of SMA is 1404 yuan /KW, the cost of sunshine power supply is only 56% of the cost of SMA.

Although the price of SMA is still much higher than that of sunshine power due to the reputation established in the early stage, certain technical advantages, and the main sales market is Europe, the inherent disadvantage of cost control has been gradually revealed.

During this period, the global market share of Chinese companies increased rapidly.

According to Wood Mackenzie, the top seven domestic companies, including Sun Power, accounted for just 6 percent of the global market in 2012, 18 percent in 2013 and 31 percent in 2014. Among the leading enterprises, the global market share of Huawei and Sunshine Power reached 10% annually in 2014, indicating the rise of Chinese enterprises in the global inverter market.


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