022预测：光伏未来在哪里

1、总体规模

由于今年实际装机不及预期（原来预计是55-65GW），而双碳目标任务依然较重，这使得光伏行业普遍对明年新增装机预期比较乐观。业内人士表示，2022年我国光伏新增装机可能在75GW以上。

而东吴证券近期发布的研报则更为乐观，2022年一季度硅料有16万吨产能陆续释放，价格下调将大幅刺激需求，预计一季度淡季不淡，后续逐季提升。产业链降价带动地面电站加速起量，整县推进+电价上涨刺激分布式光伏爆发式增长，东吴证券预计2022年国内市场需求或达80GW+，同增60％+，其中分布式光伏比例达50％+。

2、政策利好

目前，虽然还没有新的政策出台，但是有一个方向，对明年行业发展的刺激作用非常明显。

11 月 8 日，人民银行宣布通过推出碳减排支持工具，向金融机构提供低成本资金，引导金融机构在自主决策、自担风险的前提下，向碳减排重点领域内的各类企业一视同仁提供碳减排贷款，贷款利率与同期限档次贷款市场报价利率（LPR）大致持平。

据测算，这将使光伏装机企业的成本下降0.5%，极大的缓解目前资金成本较为紧张的情况。

3、产业链变化

对于产业链各环节的变化，市场人士有以下几个预期：

（1）硅料降价

（2）组件涨价

（3）国家产业政策继续支持

（4）全球的清洁能源合作

（5）整县推进与分布式光伏建设继续提升

上面5条中，根据2021年行业趋势的延续性来判断，前4条是相对容易预判的。

而第5条则需要细细品味。这里面还有一个小插曲。2021年6月20日，国家能源局下发《关于报送整县（市、区）屋顶分布式光伏开发试点方案的通知》，对具备条件的建筑屋顶进行分布式光伏安装试点，随后全国各地陆续掀起了试点的高潮。

然而在试点中也出现了一些问题，日前，经济日报发文称，“推进屋顶光伏开发切忌大呼隆”：屋顶光伏分布广、站点多，管理困难、运维难度大，需要服务好、反应快的企业，大企业资本、技术实力雄厚，有大企业的优势，但也有管理成本较高等不足。对于民营中小企业来说，尽管有些方面比不上大企业，但也有自身比较优势。因此，各类企业充分竞争，有助于形成互补共生和谐发展的关系。

从这篇报道来看，2021年在试点推进的过程出现了一些“大呼隆”式的冒进问题，部分地方出现不科学的抢进度以及市场排他现象；但是，不管争议如何，至少说明了分布式光伏的前景是越来越好。

按照国家能源局的要求，光伏发展要坚持多项并举，其中就包括坚持集中式与分布式并举。在政策的推动下，分布式光伏已经进入规模化发展阶段，集中式光伏和分布式光伏装机的占比逐渐趋于平衡，预计“十四五”期间也将维持良好的发展态势。

在整县推进分布式光伏的情况下，2022年中分布式光伏极有可能依然是我国最重要的方式。

4、其他看点

分析研究行业，最终要落到对投资决策的辅助价值上来。对于2022年光伏行业的变化，专业机构是如何解读的呢？国信证券在近期的研报中发表了对于未来预测的观点，可以作为参考思路：

（1）平价时代光伏板块投资的重大逻辑变化——从边际产能成本定价向边际需求成本承受力定价切换：

（2）2022年瓶颈环节硅料产量定装机，预计全球新增装机230GW以上：

硅料高景气持续，电池片边际修复，重视组件中长期格局；

（3）逆变器及辅材确定性受益放量，关注格局及利润率改善：

（4）N型迈入量产元年，孕育设备新机遇：

（5）发电侧大基数+用户侧高弹性，2022年储能确定性高增长：

国信证券认为，估值方面，尽管板块已经涨了三年，但在行业规模增长、集中度提升驱动的业绩增长下，2022年随着企业业绩增长兑现和龙头领先优势逐步验证，板块仍有较大概率的整体提估值机会，龙头更有望逐步享有估值溢价。

1. Overall scale  

 

Due to this year's actual installed capacity is less than expected (originally expected to be 55-65GW), and the dual carbon target task is still relatively heavy, which makes the photovoltaic industry generally optimistic about the new installed capacity next year.   China's new pv installations in 2022 are likely to be more than 75GW, industry insiders said.  

 

And soowu Securities recently released a research report is more optimistic, in the first quarter of 2022, silicon is expected to release 160,000 tons of capacity, the price reduction will greatly stimulate demand, is expected to be the first quarter of the off-season is not weak, the subsequent quarter to improve.   Industry chain price reduction to accelerate the ground power station, the county to promote + electricity prices to stimulate the explosive growth of distributed photovoltaic, Dongwu Securities is expected to 2022 domestic market demand or up to 80GW+, with an increase of 60% +, in which the proportion of distributed photovoltaic up to 50% +.  

 

2. Favorable policies  

 

At present, although there is no new policy, but there is a direction, next year's industry development of the stimulus effect is very obvious.  

 

On November 8, the People's Bank of China announced by introducing carbon reduction support tools, provide low-cost capital to financial institutions, encourage financial institutions under the premise of independent decision-making, at their own risk, equally to carbon reduction focus in the field of all kinds of enterprises to provide loans to reduce emissions, loan interest rate and term loan market quotation rate with roughly equal (LPR).  

 

It is estimated that this will reduce the cost of photovoltaic installation enterprises by 0.5%, greatly easing the current tight capital cost situation.  

 

3. Industrial chain changes  

 

Market participants have the following expectations for changes in all links of the industrial chain:  

 

(1) Silicon material price reduction  

 

(2) Component price increase  

 

(3) Continued support from national industrial policies  

 

(4) Global cooperation on clean energy  

 

(5) The county continues to promote and promote distributed photovoltaic construction  

 

Of the five items above, the first four are relatively easy to predict based on the continuity of industry trends in 2021.  

 

No. 5 is something to chew on.  There's a twist to this.  On June 20, 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Submitting the Pilot Scheme of Rooftop Distributed PHOTOVOLTAIC Development for the Whole County (city, district)", which carried out the pilot installation of distributed photovoltaic on the roofs of buildings with the conditions. Subsequently, the climax of the pilot was set off in succession across the country.  

 

Also appeared some problems in the pilot, however, a few days ago, said the economic journal articles, "advance the photovoltaic roof headlong mass action of avoid by all means" : photovoltaic roof, wide distribution, site management difficult, difficult operations, need good service, fast reaction of enterprises, large enterprises capital, strong technical strength, has the advantage of large enterprises, but also have high management cost.   For private smes, although they are not as good as large enterprises in some aspects, they also have their own comparative advantages.   Therefore, full competition among various enterprises helps to form a relationship of complementary symbiosis and harmonious development.  

 

According to this report, in the process of pilot promotion in 2021, there are some "great Hulong-style" reckless problems, unscientific progress and market exclusiveness in some places.   But whatever the controversy, it at least shows that the prospects for distributed pv are getting better.  

 

According to the requirements of the National Energy Administration, photovoltaic development should adhere to a number of parallel, including the persistence of centralized and distributed parallel.   Under the promotion of the policy, distributed photovoltaic has entered the stage of large-scale development, the proportion of centralized photovoltaic and distributed photovoltaic installed gradually tends to balance, is expected to maintain a good trend of development during the "14th Five-Year plan".  

 

In the case of the whole county to promote distributed pv, it is very likely to remain the most important way in 2022.  

 

4. Other things to watch  

 

Analysis of the industry, ultimately to fall on the value of investment decisions.  How do professional bodies interpret the changes in pv industry in 2022?  Guosen Securities published its views on future prediction in a recent research report, which can be used as a reference:  

 

(1) Major logical change of photovoltaic plate investment in the era of parity -- switch from marginal capacity cost pricing to marginal demand cost bearing pricing:  

 

(2) The capacity of silicon material in bottleneck link will be fixed and installed in 2022, and it is estimated that the global installed capacity will be more than 230GW:  

 

Silicon material high boom continued, cell marginal repair, pay attention to the long-term pattern of components;  

 

(3) Inverters and auxiliary materials are sure to benefit more, focusing on pattern and profit margin improvement:  

 

(4) N-type entering the first year of mass production, breeding new opportunities for equipment:  

 

(5) Large base on the power generation side + high elasticity on the user side, energy storage will definitely increase in 2022:  

 

Guosen securities believes that the valuation ways, although plate has risen for three years, but in the growth of the industry scale, concentration increase drive growth, as corporate earnings growth in 2022 to cash and leading edge gradually validation, plate still has larger probability of the overall valuation opportunity, leading more is expected to gradually enjoys a premium valuation.